Experts expect hotter El Niño

By: Ronnel W. Domingo - 9 years ago

The current El Niño phenomenon is expected in the next few weeks to surpass warm temperatures observed during the phenomenon’s occurrences in the past decade, and it is still picking up in strength, according to Australian climate experts.

“The 2015 El Niño is now well-established and continues to strengthen,” Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology said in its latest fortnightly update.

“In the coming weeks, the central tropical Pacific Ocean may exceed the peak [temperatures] reached during the 2002 and 2009 [occurrences], but current anomalies remain well short of the 1982 and 1997 peaks,” the bureau added.

The agency noted that this prevailing El Niño may still continue to strengthen considering that peak temperatures are observed late during the year.

Last week, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) said almost the entire country was expected to experience a dry spell or, worse, drought by January 2016 as the effects of what could be the worst occurrence of El Niño looms over the archipelago.

According to the latest six-month rainfall outlook from Pagasa, Central Luzon, Ilocandia, northern Calabarzon, southern Mindoro, Palawan Island, parts of northern Mindanao and most of the Visayas will have been suffering from drought.

Pagasa defines drought as at least three consecutive months when rainfall is “way below normal” or at most 40 percent of the average rainfall.

Drought may also be five consecutive months when rainfall is “below normal” or 41 percent to 80 percent of the average.

By January, most of the rest of the country is also expected to be experiencing a dry spell. This happens with at least two consecutive months “way below normal” or three consecutive months “below normal” rainfall.

The only holdout would be the peninsula in Cagayan province, covering the towns of Sta. Ana and Gonzaga—where rainfall would be “near normal” or at least 80 percent of the average.

Pagasa climatologist Anthony Lucero said that based on monitoring as of July 26, six provinces were already experiencing a drought. These are Bohol, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Quezon, Romblon and Siquijor provinces.

Also, nine provinces are already experiencing a dry spell—Aurora, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Laguna, Marinduque, Nueva Vizcaya, Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro and Quirino.