HSBC: Roxas’ 2016 chances improve after Binay ratings fell

MANILA, Philippines—Interior Secretary Mar Roxas has emerged as the strongest contender for the 2016 presidential elections against Vice President Jejomar Binay, the front-runner whose popularity rating has dropped amid corruption allegations, the global financial giant HSBC said in a report.

Roxas, who lost to Binay in the 2010 balloting, might gain a boost from an endorsement from President Benigno Aquino III, who has maintained high approval ratings from the public, HSBC said in a 12-page research note to clients this week.

“Given that Aquino’s administration is seen as largely corruption-free, he could gain from an official endorsement by Aquino, especially should Binay’s position in surveys continue to decline,” HSBC economist Trinh Nguyen said in the report, titled “After Aquino: Mapping out the impact of the 2016 presidential election.”

DILG Sec. Mar Roxas. INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

“His key messages are that he will continue the work started by the current administration and ensure that the good governance approach perpetuates,” she said.

Binay remains the front-runner in surveys among potential presidential candidates in 2016. But Binay’s rating has taken a hit following allegations of corruption while he was vice mayor Makati City.

A Pulse Asia survey in September asked 1,200 respondents who they would vote for “if elections were held today.” Binay’s lead slumped to 31 percent, while Roxas rose to second place with 13 percent.

HSBC said over the last four and a half years, the Philippine economic growth rates had been higher than averages seen before 2010. Much of this growth could be credited to the administration’s good governance agenda, it said.

The economy has been expanding at an average annual rate of 5.9 percent since 2010. At the same time the Aquino administration has narrowed the budget deficit, won upgrades by credit rating agencies and lowered funding costs significantly.

Even the peace process in Mindanao has accelerated, HSBC said.

The goodwill generated by these gains could provide a significant boost to Mr. Aquino’s preferred successor in 2016 to challenge Binay.

HSBC cited Binay’s history of switching camps. Binay was head of the Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) but resigned last March. Last September, Binay converted the United Nationalist Alliance, a former coalition between PDP-Laban and Pwersa ng Masang Pilipino (PMP), into a political party.

Roxas has been a long-time member and current leader of the ruling Liberal Party. Roxas gave way to Mr. Aquino in 2010 presidential balloting, but lost to Binay in the vice presidential race.

Both Binay’s and Roxas’ impressive records were cited by the HSBC. For instance, when he was mayor, Binay, a former human rights lawyer, provided free education and healthcare in Makati. Roxas was educated at the Wharton Business School in economics and worked as an investment banker before entering politics.

HSBC said past elections had shown that mobilizing support at the local level would be the key to winning the presidency. Given the autonomy of local governments and limited linkages with political parties, only candidates that could mobilize support at the local level, have deep pockets, and have the appropriate reputation to gain grassroots support “tend to get elected,” according to the HSBC report.

Regardless of who wins, Mr. Aquino’s successor will inherit an economy that will be in its “best shape in decades,” according to the HSBC.

HSBC expects the economy to continue to grow at above 6 percent in 2015 and 2016. Although investment growth may slow down in the next two years amid uncertainty over the elections, the domestic economy would remain strong.

HSBC’s comments were in a 12-page research note to clients. Its title was “After Aquino: Mapping Out the Impact of the 2016 presidential election.”

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