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MANILA, Philippines–The Philippines may dodge a major threat to domestic food production as the El Niño occurrence this year is likely to be weak, and its impact felt mostly in the southern hemisphere.
The latest climate outlook from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, the International Research Institute for Climate and Society, and the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration continue to call for an El Niño watch, said the Agricultural Market Information System (Amis).
But while an El Niño event was expected to have begun by this time, the defining oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the Pacific have not yet been established, Amis said.
“Nonetheless, the probability of seeing El Niño conditions by November is above 60 percent, though the event is likely to be a weak one,” said Amis, a multilateral agency which is led by the United Nations’ Food and Agricultural Organization.
‘Potential impact’
But “potential impacts” of El Niño should still be considered in the 2014/2015 growing season in the southern hemisphere, “even though the probabilities of occurrence and likely strength have diminished,” it said.
In particular, crops of rice, maize and wheat grown in parts of Asia, Southern Africa and Australia are threatened with below-normal rainfall, Amis said.
On the other hand, crops of corn, soy and wheat grown in major regions of South America might benefit since El Niño is often associated with above-average rainfall in those parts.
El Niño is a weather phenomenon caused by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and equatorial Pacific, generally resulting in reduced rainfall and drought conditions, and stronger tropical cyclones in the Philippines.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Administration earlier predicted the onset of El Niño in the country in June, which may peak during the last quarter of 2014 and may last up to the first quarter of 2015.
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