Race to Cebu City Hall

At the weekly 888 News Forum held last Tuesday in Marco Polo Plaza, Cebu City south district Rep. Tomas “Tommy” Osmeña said the mayoralty race remains fluid, indicating there is no issue that has polarized the public enough for voters to take a vehement stand or convincing positions either for or against the candidates.

Tommy is staging a comeback at City Hall and his challenge to incumbent Mayor Michael “Mike” Rama is one of the most thrilling political matches I have seen in recent times.

The campaign on the local level according to Tommy is being smeared by black propaganda perpetrated by the rival camp. Allegations about his supposed failing health, and plans to kick out Team Rama supporters in City Hall or depressed areas in the event the outgoing congressman wins are being fanned by pro-Rama radio block timers or commentators, Tommy said, so he turns his campaign sorties into opportunities to rebut allegations and answer brickbats thrown by political enemies.

In other words, Tommy is on the defensive while Mike is on the offensive.

This is not surprising because Mike enjoys the equity of the incumbent. Moreover, because Tommy was able to build a political machinery that has delivered for the past seven elections, Team Rama needs to project itself from a position of strength to gain some psychological advantage. By coming on strong over Tommy’s health issues and relations with urban poor groups, Mayor Rama must think these are his strengths and his foe’s weak points.

It must be pointed out that Tommy and Mike used to be allies for close to two decades. They know each other very well to the point perhaps that they can read other’s minds or anticipate the other’s next move.

Between the two of them, nobody will say he is losing because both are running to win so I pressed Tommy during the 888 Forum to calculate the margin that will secure his victory over Mike on Monday. Tommy did not give a categorical answer.

Tommy became lord of Cebu City politics in 1988 when he was first elected mayor. His Bando Osmeña – Pundok Kauswagan is monolithic. In recent elections no candidate outside BO-PK has managed to win a post in the city council or House of Representatives without Tommy’s blessing.

After his three successive terms as mayor ended in 1995, Tommy chose then Vice Mayor and party mate Alvin Garcia to succeed him. They had a falling out over investment projects and in 2001 they fought each other in a close match that resulted in Tommy winning the race by a slim margin.

In 2010, he gave then Vice Mayor Michael Rama the chance to succeed him at City Hall but their alliance fell apart, this time over policy issues pertaining to the South Road Properties or SRP.

Will 2013 be a repeat of 2001? Or will Mike’s long and close association with the brains of BO-PK, among others, do Tommy in?

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The results of the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) survey indicate a strong win for Team P-Noy senatorial candidates with seven of them most likely to win on Monday according to the pollster.

BusinessWorld, which first published the survey, reported that some 2,400 registered voters nationwide were polled on May 2 and May 3. According to the survey, seven Team P-Noy and two United Nationalist Alliance (UNA) bets “appear as safe to win” in the senatorial race.

Loren Legarda of Team P-Noy is on top spot followed by Alan Peter Cayetano (Team PNoy) in 2nd, Maria Lourdes Nancy Binay (UNA) in 3rd to 4th place, Grace Poe Llamanzares (Team P-Noy) in 5th, JV Ejercito (UNA) and Cynthia Villar (Team P-Noy) both tied in 6th to 7th slots, Koko Pimentel (Team P-Noy) in 8th and Bam Aquino (Team P) in 9th.

These “winningest” candidates are expected to go full blast in their campaign to fortify their lead because nothing is really certain until all the votes are counted and the winners declared. Moreover, those in the 10th to 15th slots will do all they can to get inside the winning circle.

The remaining three slots will be a fierce battle for Team P-Noy bets like Aurora Rep. Sonny Angara and reelectionist Sen. Antonio Trillanes IV who are both tied for 10th to 11th spots, according to SWS. Reelectionist Gringo Honasan of UNA is on the 12th spot but another UNA bet, Jack Enrile is also working hard to close in on the magic slate.

Perched on the 14th and 15th were Ramon Magsaysay Jr. of Team P-Noy and Juan Miguel Zubiri of UNA. Judging by their advertisements that employ A-listers for endorsers (Richard Yap for Magsaysay and Vice President Jejomar Binay for Zubiri), these candidates are clearly pulling all the stops in order to win.

I certainly hope people will vote intelligently and not be clouded by single issues in making decisions, or tempted to sell their votes. I pray, too, that candidates will not resort to vote buying and other shenanigans to subvert the democratic process otherwise we can never move on or even aspire to be a free country.