After 3 to 5 storms, quieter weather seen

MANILA, Philippines—Three to five more tropical cyclones are expected to arrive in the Philippines in the last two months of 2012, but there’s less chance of storms in the first quarter of next year, according to the state weather bureau.

Due to borderline neutral or weak El Niño conditions, “generally, rainfall conditions in most areas of the country are expected to be below normal during the forecast period (November-March),” a weather specialist said at the 57th Climate Forum held last month.

In her presentation at the Oct. 24 forum, Rusy G. Abastillas of the Philippine Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration’s (Pagasa) Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section said neutral or weak El Niño conditions will likely continue by early 2013.

She based her prediction on models and figures provided by the United States-based Climate Prediction Center, and International Research Institute for Climate and Society.