Vietnam learns lesson about China aggression—everyone’s a target

MANILA, Philippines—One of the biggest lessons that Vietnam has learned about China’s expansionism in the South China Sea is indisputable—the Asian behemoth does not discriminate in its campaign of conquest at sea.

The aggression that Filipinos confront with regularity—almost weekly—in the West Philippine Sea is not an “exclusive experience” of the Philippines.

This was stressed by geopolitical analyst Don McLain Gill, who pointed out the shift in Vietnam’s perception of China, which continues with its “active escalation” in most of the South China Sea, outside of its exclusive economic zone (EEZ).

Last Oct. 31, Vietnam protested China’s detention of its fishermen and vessels in the Paracel Islands, where China, Vietnam and Taiwan have overlapping claims.

Vietnam demanded that China “release all illegally captured fishermen and vessels” who were believed to have been detained since June.

China instead asserted that the Paracel Islands, which it calls Xisha Qundao, is China’s “inherent territory.”

“China hopes Vietnam will earnestly raise the awareness of its fishermen and make sure they will not engage in illegal activities in waters under China’s jurisdiction,” said Lin Jian, spokesperson of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

‘More vocal’

Gill told INQUIRER.net that this was not the first case of China’s harassment of Vietnamese fishermen, but “what we could see” in the past few months or years is that Vietnam has become “more vocal in criticizing China’s belligerent behavior.”

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This, as in the first few days of October, Vietnam said that ten Vietnamese fishermen were violently beaten and robbed by men who came from vessels that bore Chinese flags.

Vietnam said that the fishermen were beaten with iron bars and robbed of thousands of dollars worth of fish and equipment on Sept. 29 off the Paracel Islands, where China has had, in effect, control since the Battle of the Paracel Islands in 1974.

READ: Vietnamese fishers beaten, robbed in South China Sea – state media

Some of the fishermen were brought to the hospital on Sept. 30 after arriving at Quang Ngai harbor, based on a report by state-run newspaper Tien Phong, which said that the victims were attacked by 40 individuals for three hours.

“So we see China continuously pursuing active escalation, but we are also seeing a shift in Vietnam’s perception towards China’s activities,” Gill said as he stressed that Vietnam has become more vocal based on its recent foreign policy choices.

He pointed out that it is now trying to “maximize its multi-aligned approach by strengthening security ties with like-minded countries in the West, Japan, Australia, and even immediate neighbors such as the Philippines.”

Now clearer

As Gill said, “we are seeing a more nuanced approach in Vietnam’s dealings with China” as the latter’s harassment of fishermen, and even the coast guard and military in the case of the Philippines, is becoming clearer and clearer.

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He stressed that Viernam understands that the expansionism of China, which has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands, does not discriminate—that all countries asserting rights over some areas of the vast South China Sea can become victims of China’s aggression.

Back in June, China even acted like “pirates” in its attack against the Philippine Navy in Ayungin, or Second Thomas Shoal. The China Coast Guard (CCG) illegally boarded Filipino vessels, wielding bolos, knives, and spears.

READ: China’s West Philippine Sea gray zone tactics: It’s still war

The Philippines is also a consistent victim of China’s introduction of weapons, like military-grade lasers and water cannons, which defense analyst Chester Cabalza said are reflecting the intensity of China’s gray zone tactics in the South China Sea.

This year, too, even with Malaysia saying that China should not be feared, China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs had told Malaysia, which is exploring oil and gas reserves within its EEZ, that it already infringes on China’s sovereignty over the Spratly Islands.

READ: Malaysia gets taste of China West Philippine Sea bullying

Spratly Islands, which China calls Nansha Qundao, is almost 750 miles away from its southernmost Hainan Island, but it still expressed “strong concern and dissatisfaction” over Malaysia’s exploration of oil and gas reserves.

Dominance

Based on data from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Vietnam are occupying reefs and islands spread across the South China Sea, constructing over 90 outposts.

China, it said, has 20 outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratly Islands, including in areas within the EEZ of the Philippines, which won an arbitral award against China in 2016, declaring China’s nine, now 10-dash line as baseless and illegal.

Vietnam has 21 outposts in the Spratly Islands, however, it has 14 isolated platforms referred to as “economic, scientific, and technological service stations,” or Dịch vụ-Khoa (DK1).

AMTI said that in recent years, Vietnam has reclaimed new land at eight of the 10 rocks that it is occupying, and “built out many of its smaller outposts on submerged reefs and banks.”

For Gill, the incidents in the South China Sea and the responses from Vietnam, and even the Philippines, could trigger a more vibrant, a more reoriented approach towards China.

But while “we don’t expect any immediate or radical shift in the short term [when it comes to Vietnamese foreign and security policy] we are seeing changes when we look at it based on an overall pattern.”

“These developments are definitely worth paying attention to,” he said.

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