Teodoro: Don’t fear mistakes in weather estimates, prioritize safety

MANILA, Philippines — Regional directors responsible for filtering weather forecasts from the state weather bureau should not hesitate to make weather estimates, even if they may be inaccurate, as long as they are “on the side of safety,” Defense Secretary Gilbert Teodoro Jr. said on Tuesday.

According to Teodoro, the track forecast of a tropical cyclone may change, and the “best appreciation” of the forecast should be made.

“Ang instruction po natin sa kanila… ‘Wag po tayong matakot na magkamali na ang estimate or best judgment natin ay lumihis sa pangyayari sa panahon, just as long as ‘yung error ay on the side of safety,” said Teodoro on the press briefing for the preparation for Typhoon Marce.

(Our instruction to them is… let’s not be afraid of making mistakes if our estimates or best judgments deviate from actual weather conditions, as long as the error is on the side of safety.)

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Teodoro also said that it is better to have a forecast that keeps the public informed and prepared, rather than one that catches them off guard.

“Mabuti na pong asahan ‘yan based on information na uulan at kung hindi po umulan, okay lang po ‘yun. ‘Wag lang po ‘yung dahil sa conservatism, hindi uulan, biglang umulan at nabigla po tayo,” he added.

(It’s better to expect based on the information that it will rain, and if it doesn’t rain, that’s okay. We just shouldn’t underestimate the situation by assuming it won’t rain and then suddenly being caught off guard when it does.)

The Defense chief said regional directors of the provincial and city disaster risk reduction and management offices should be the first ones to know the weather conditions in their localities.

“Ito po ay itatranslate ng ating mga regional director sa provincial at city disaster risk reduction and management offices na sila din ay dapat mag estimate kung ano’ng mangyayari sa kanilang mga lokalidad dahil sila ang nakakaalam ng kondisyon sa lokalidad,” Teodoro noted.

(This will be translated by our regional directors to the provincial and city disaster risk reduction and management offices, which should also estimate what will happen in their localities since they are familiar with the local conditions)

Teodoro then reminded the public that weather and other disaster advisories can be found on the social media pages of concerned agencies.

He also said that the Inter-Agency Coordinating Cell (IACC) under the Office of the Civil Defense (OCD) would convene on Tuesday afternoon to prepare for Marce’s possible effects on several parts of the country.

The IACC was reinstated as part of the mandate of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council and the OCD, according to Teodoro.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said in its 11 a.m. weather bulletin Tuesday that Marce further intensified and developed into a typhoon category as of 10 a.m., prompting the raising of Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 in 12 areas in Luzon.

READ: Marce now a typhoon; Signal No. 1 up in 12 Luzon areas