Duterte’s Senate bid poses threat to Marcos, analysts say

President Marcos  —Malacañang photo                                                              Former President Rodrigo Duterte

MANILA, Philippines — The country’s dominant Marcos and Duterte dynasties, which have been uneasy allies for two years, are gearing up for an election showdown that could upset policy stability in the coming years.

Vice President Sara Duterte’s resignation as education secretary on June 19 was followed a week later by her bombshell announcement that her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, and brothers Paolo, a lawmaker, and Sebastian, the incumbent Davao City mayor, would run for the Senate next year.

The collapse of the alliance had long been expected, but the political challenges faced by the Dutertes could upset President Ferdinand Marcos Jr.’s hopes of consolidating power so he can groom a potential successor for 2028 when analysts say Sara Duterte may seek the top job.

READ: VP Duterte: My father, brothers will run for senator in 2025

“It is a threat,” said Jean Encinas-Franco, a University of the Philippines political science professor. “It is a message to the Marcoses as it is a message to the Filipino people that ‘we are alive and kicking.’”

Marcos, 66, shrugged off the Dutertes’ plans, telling reporters, “It’s a free country. They’re allowed to do whatever they want.”

The Marcos and Duterte clans joined together opportunistically in 2022, sweeping Marcos and Sara Duterte into office despite his stark differences from his predecessor in terms of style and policy.

Marcos has pivoted foreign policy back toward his traditional ally, the United States, amid the Philippines’ maritime dispute with China, with which Duterte was friendly while starting potential peace talks with communist rebels.

In a political culture where personality often trumps ideology, Marcos, the popular son and namesake of the late strongman Ferdinand Marcos Sr., presents a polished, if bland, image in contrast to the brash and profane Rodrigo Duterte.

Playbook

It is unclear how the potential candidacies of Duterte, 79, and his sons might affect policy in the near term.

However, victories in the May midterm elections by the Duterte family, backed by their strong political base, could complicate Marcos’ efforts to pass laws that diverge from the Dutertes’ interests.

The former president on Sunday denied the family’s political plans as bared by his daughter.

“Don’t believe Inday [Sara Duterte]. She’s just making that up,” he said. “What will we do in the Senate? The three of us?”

He said he was through with politics. “I’ve mellowed and aged,” he said. “Laos na ako (I’m past my prime).”

ICC factor

Critics, however, may regard his remarks as a playbook reminiscent of his professed indecision to seek the presidency in 2016.

Political analyst Julio Amador said Duterte may be motivated to run for “political protection,” since he is being investigated by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over his signature drug war campaign, in which thousands were killed during his presidency.

Highlighting the complicated political partnership, Marcos said the Philippines was considering rejoining the ICC but would “not lift a finger” to assist in its investigation of Duterte, a former mayor and prosecutor.

Marcos had a 55-percent approval rating in March, below that of Sara Duterte at 67 percent, with both declining from three months earlier, according to the latest quarterly survey by Pulse Asia.

Sara Duterte, 46, had been tipped to win the 2022 presidential election but shifted to run with Marcos, seeing off any other rivals and sealing a comeback for his once-disgraced family.

A survey last year by Social Weather Stations showed her the top pick for president in 2028.

Eleven months out from the midterms, Rodrigo Duterte is favored to win a Senate seat and his sons, although trailing, could ride their father’s coattails into office.

The polls also show likely Senate reelection for two of his closest allies—a former aide and the former police chief who oversaw his drug war.

Tipping the scales

Three Dutertes in the Senate could tip the scales in the chamber, and it would not be farfetched for the patriarch to be voted Senate president, analysts say.

This could put Marcos at risk of censures and congressional probes, paving the way for the Dutertes to co-opt independents and sideline opponents.

“In the Senate, it is easy to launch investigations, which can make or break presidential ambitions,” Franco said.

Former presidential adviser and political analyst Ronald Llamas said the Dutertes are “facing an existential crisis,” given the ICC probe and Marcos’ dangling the possibility of reversing Rodrigo Duterte’s removal of the Philippines from the Hague court.

Harry Roque, Duterte’s spokesperson when he was president, said the “ICC had lost its jurisdiction” after Manila’s withdrawal went into effect.

Still, Llamas said, “Their backs are against the wall.”

But Amador also pointed out: “Would the Senate give up a sitting senator to an international tribunal?”

He noted further that flirting with potentially destabilizing Senate campaigns could also be a “ploy” by the Dutertes “to be in the news.”

“[They’re] basically reminding the Filipino people that they are still a powerful name,” Amador said. “They [still] have an impact on national politics.” —reports from Germelina Lacorte