LOST SEASON | Severe heat due to El Niño has dried up farms, such as in Imus, Cavite, in this photo taken on March 2. The government expects the dry spell to linger as El Niño transitions to La Niña by June. (Photo by RICHARD A. REYES / Philippine Daily Inquirer)
MANILA, Philippines — Filipinos must brace for a longer duration of the dry spell and continue their water-conservation measures as the El Niño weather phenomenon shifts to a La Niña in the coming months, Secretary Renato Solidum Jr. of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST) said on Tuesday.
“The [effects of] El Niño in the tropical Pacific continues to weaken, but the impacts [such as] hotter and drier conditions will continue. Although El Niño will transition to neutral by April to June 2024, there is also the increasing probability of La Niña at 62 percent in June to August,” he said at a press briefing in Malacañang after a sectoral meeting with President Marcos on the government’s response to the extreme weather condition.
READ: El Niño, La Niña together? What to know
READ: El Niño waning, La Niña to develop in second half of 2024
Opposite effect
La Niña is a weather phenomenon with the opposite effect of El Niño, wherein trade winds are more potent than usual, pushing more warm water and increased rainfall toward the Asian region, thus raising the risks of floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.
According to Solidum, however, a predeveloping La Niña, characterized by below-normal rainfall, would likely cause a delay in the onset of the rainy season, worsening the effects of the prevailing El Niño.
“If we look at the impacts of the ongoing El Niño starting October [last year], we have seen some provinces are under a dry spell; but up to March, we have seen an increasing number of provinces affected by dry spells and drought,” he said.
Drought, dry spell to persist
Citing data from the weather bureau, Solidum said that as of Sunday, 37 provinces had experienced drought conditions, while 17 provinces were under a dry spell and 13 others under a dry condition.
According to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa), a drought prevails over an area that has experienced up to five straight months of below-normal rainfall.
A dry spell is declared in an area if it has seen three months of a 60-percent reduction in rainfall, and a dry condition is when it has two to three months of below-normal rainfall.
Solidum said Pagasa forecasts that by April, more than 60 percent of the country would experience below-normal rainfall—a condition that could persist until May.
“By May, it will be 54 provinces to be affected by drought and 10 [under] dry spell,” he said.
Solidum said the government was bracing for the effects of a prolonged drought by mitigating a water shortage.
“There’s still a lack of water and so the lack of water will be the main factor for the different responses of both the government and the public,” he said.
Data for public use
According to Solidum, President Marcos has directed government agencies to continue conducting operations for El Niño preparedness while considering the need to prepare for La Niña in the second half of the year.
The President has also ordered the activation of the El Niño Southern Oscillation Online Platform, a centralized data repository for understanding, monitoring and addressing the impacts of El Niño and La Niña.
“It’s a website so [users] don’t need to download. But it’s very easy to use. You can see interactive maps… the forecast and the actual El Niño events, the affected areas… [as well as] conservation strategies for both water and electricity,” he said.
Fewer, stronger typhoons
Once La Niña fully sets in, the country will experience more destructive typhoons caused by stronger winds and heavier rains, according to Analiza Solis, head of Pagasa’s climatology and agrometeorology division.
READ: Pagasa raises La Niña Watch as forecasts show early onset
“So these are two things that we need to watch out for in the possible arrival of La Niña—either the typhoons are rain-bearing or will pack stronger winds, especially during the southwest monsoon season,” she said.
However, Solis said they were expecting fewer typhoons to make landfall this year but warned that the lead time to prepare for any typhoon could be shorter as the weather disturbances might form nearer the Philippine landmass.
Solis forecasts between 13 and 16 typhoons for 2024, below the annual average of 19 to 20.
“There is always the possibility of destructive typhoons, not only in terms of strong winds but also potentially heavier rainfall, so that is what we need to prepare for given the combined effects of the incoming La Niña and the fading El Niño pattern,” Solis noted.
Gov’t aid not enough
Meanwhile, the peasant women’s group Amihan on Tuesday criticized the government’s response to the El Niño crisis, calling it “useless and criminally neglectful” because the financial aid was too little and generally lacked preparation.
Amihan noted the P1.75 billion worth of damage the dry spell had so far wrought on agriculture.
“Instead of a comprehensive plan from the government and the DA (Department of Agriculture), to think this extreme drought was already forecast last year, only credit assistance has been offered by the government,” Cathy Estavillo, secretary general of Amihan, said in a statement.
The group also found the P3,000 to P5,000 financial aid given to farmers to be too small compared to their expenses, which can reach P60,000 per hectare per cropping season.
It demanded proper compensation for all the irreversibly damaged crops and financial aid for farmers whose fields can still be saved.
Iloilo damage
In Iloilo province, the damage to crops (mainly rice and corn) and fisheries due to El Niño has been placed at P526.61 million.
Gov. Arthur Defensor Jr. said the provincial government was considering giving affected farmers some pigs to raise as livestock or alternative crops that do not require much water.
The provincial board now wants to declare a state of calamity so it can access the quick response fund to help farmers, he said.