Pagasa: February tropical cyclone chance low for PH

MANILA, Philippines — The state weather agency’s earlier prediction that no tropical cyclones would strike the country this February appeared accurate.

A week before the month ends, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) predicted no tropical cyclones would form or enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) until Feb. 29.

“Based on our latest animation, we have not monitored any tropical cyclones or low-pressure areas, and there is also a low chance of a weather disturbance until the end of this month,” Pagasa weather expert Benison Estareja said.

At the start of the month, Pagasa already said that zero to one tropical cyclone might be expected to form or enter PAR in February.

Based on Pagasa’s data from 1948 to 2022, February and March recorded the least frequent occurrence of tropical cyclones with an average of 0.3.

The Philippines is prone to tropical cyclones that generally produce heavy rains and flooding, which could result in heavy casualties to human life and destruction of crops and properties due to its geographical location.

Friday weather

In the meantime, Pagasa said Friday’s weather will be generally fair for many parts of the country.

Estareja noted during an early morning public weather report that cloudy skies with scattered rain showers and thunderstorms may be expected in Northern Mindanao, Caraga Region, and Davao Region, while the rest of the country may anticipate fair weather with partly cloudy to cloudy skies with isolated rain showers or thunderstorms due to the easterlies.

“The effects of easterlies bring warm weather in most parts of the country and rainy weather in parts of Mindanao,” he said.

Estareja said that Pagasa did not raise a gale warning over any nationwide seaboard for Friday.

The country is still under the effects of the El Niño phenomenon, which increases the prospect of below-normal rainfall conditions that could bring negative impacts such as dry spells or droughts in many parts of the country until the first quarter of 2024, according to Pagasa.