Just 1 tropical cyclone seen in Feb or none at all – Pagasa

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) says on Thursday, February 1, 2024, that the country may not experience any tropical cyclone this month, and if so, possibly only one. INQUIRER FILES

MANILA, Philippines — The country may experience one tropical cyclone this month or none at all, according to the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa).

Pagasa specialist Benison Estareja said that based on historical trends, tropical cyclones are less likely to develop within or enter the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) in February.

“Inaasahan po for this month zero or one po tayo at kung may bagyo na pumasok ng ating PAR, papangalanan po natin itong Aghon,” he explained.

(We expect zero or one for this month and if a typhoon would enter our PAR, we will name it Aghon.)

If a tropical cyclone would indeed hit the country this month, it would be the first for the year, he added.

READ: Northeast monsoon to wane, less rain likely this weekend – Pagasa

Estareja also explained the two scenarios might occur should a weather disturbance happen in February, citing average tracks of past cyclones.

He said one scenario shows a tropical cyclone forming east of Mindanao and approaching Visayas and Mindanao with the possibility of making landfall.

Another scenario, he added, shows a tropical cyclone developing in the Pacific Ocean and entering the PAR but recurving away from the country.

READ: Most of PH to see rain due to northeast monsoon, LPA’s trough – Pagasa

According to Pagasa, around four to seven tropical cyclones are expected to form inside or enter the PAR from February to July this year.

It further said that an average of 20 tropical cyclones enter the PAR every year, with about eight or nine crossing the country’s landmass.

Most of these cyclones, or about 70 percent of them, develop during the peak typhoon season in July to October, Pagasa added.