Octa: Experts foresee COVID-19 positivity rate to rise to 25% in Metro Manila

MASK UP A tarpaulin reminding the public to wear face masks is installed at the busy corner of Quezon Avenue and Agham Road in Quezon City in this photo taken during the height of lockdowns in 2021. INQUIRER file photo / NIÑO JESUS ORBETA

MANILA, Philippines — The COVID-19 positivity rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) is expected to reach 25 percent, according to Octa Research fellow Guido David on Friday.

This would be five times the World Health Organization’s threshold for COVID-19 positivity rates.

“We’re expecting tataas pa yung positivity rate, baka umabot ng mga up to 25 percent. Hindi lang ako gumawa ng projections na yan, even other experts foresee that,” David said in the Laging Handa Public Briefing.

(We’re expecting the positivity rate to increase. That is not just me making those projections; even other exports foresee that.)

David also said that areas around Metro Manila may have increased positivity rates of up to more than 20 percent, including  Cavite, Rizal, and Laguna.

He explained that the rise and drop in cases could already be anticipated, as with diseases like dengue.

With the increase in cases, David assured that it would not reach the levels of the Delta variant wave in 2021. The Philippine College of Physicians called that wave “severe,” with a COVID-19 positivity rate reaching 30 percent.

READ: PH in fourth, ‘most severe’ COVID-19 wave – Philippine College of Physicians

David noted that healthcare utilization rates are low and are not expected to reach critical levels, adding that the positivity rate is only one way to indicate the status of cases.

“We don’t expect na tataas yan to 40 percent, for example. And it will be safe ng low levels naman,” he said.

(For example, we don’t expect it to rise to 40 percent. And it will be safe ng low levels anyway.)

The rise of cases prompted President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. to mull reinstating face mask mandates, but David said this was unnecessary.

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