Octa: NCR positivity rate down to 7.4% but uptick possible soon
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MANILA. Philippines — The National Capital Region’s (NCR) COVID-19 positivity rate decreased to 7.4%, but an uptick in cases may happen soon, said independent pandemic monitor Octa Research Group on Thursday.
From 7.8% last November 8, Octa Research fellow Guido David said the NCR positivity rate went down to 7.4% as of November 15. However, he added that the region is still at “low risk.”
“The 7-day positivity rate for Covid in the NCR decreased slightly from 7.8% as of November 8, 2022, to 7.4% as of November 15. However, the slower rate of decrease indicates a plateauing of the trend,” said David in a Twitter post.
According to David, a 5% positivity rate is still possible if the downturn continues but it is still possible that the positivity rate will be above this level.
“There is also a possibility that an uptick may happen soon. We will have to see what happens over the next few weeks” David stated.
NCR positivity rate decreased from 7.8% to 7.4% but it could be plateauing. Less than 5% positivity rate looks less likely at this time and there is some possibility of an uptick in cases. We will have to observe the trend next week. #COVID19 @dzbb @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @News5PH pic.twitter.com/NqxfzMJG13
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) November 17, 2022
Meanwhile, David said NCR’s COVID-19 reproduction number increased from 0.83 on November 6 to 1.02 on November 13.
“A reproduction number below 1 indicates infections are trending downward,” David previously explained.
The Octa fellow also said that NCR’s weekly COVID-19 growth rate rose to 11% from -18%, adding that the increase is due to lower testing volume because of a “recent holiday”.
According to the Department of Health’s website, there have been 4,020,965 cases of COVID-19, with 18,824 still active. There has also been a total of 64,432 recorded deaths.
