Rise in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila expected – OCTA

‘BOOSTER SA PALENGKE’ | Market vendors at Commonwealth Market in Quezon City get booster shots. (File photo by NIÑO JESUS ORBETA / Philippine Daily Inquirer)

MANILA, Philippines — There is a slow uptick in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, according to independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research, which noted increases in the reproduction number and positivity rate.

But OCTA Research fellow Guido David was quick to add that the increase in cases was not unexpected given the increased mobility of the population.

In a post on Twitter, David said that National Capital Region’s (NCR) seven-day COVID-19 positivity rate went up from 12.1 percent on Sept. 2, to 13.3 percent on Sept. 9.

Positivity rate refers to the percentage of tests conducted that came out positive for COVID-19.

Reproduction number

The World Health Organization’s benchmark positivity rate of below 5 percent, sustained for two weeks, indicates that virus transmission is under control.

NCR’s reproduction number or the number of people whom a COVID-19 case can infect also went up from 0.93 on Aug. 31 to 1.11 on Sept. 7.

“The reproduction number has increased to greater than one, which means infections are increasing,” David said.

A reproduction number of less than one indicates COVID-19 transmission slowing down.

The one-week growth rate in the region, recorded from Sept. 3 to Sept. 10, was at 6 percent, as compared to the negative 17 percent recorded from Aug. 27 to Sept. 3.

Despite the increases in positivity rate and reproduction number, David said the region’s average daily attack rate (Adar) was still considered “low” even as it slightly increased to 5.58 per 100,000 population.

Adar pertains to the incidence showing the average number of new cases in a period per 100,000 people.

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