Metro Manila’s COVID-19 cases on downward trend, but surge not over — OCTA

File photo shows vendors and customers wearing face masks for protection against the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) inside a public market in Quezon City last year.  (REUTERS)

MANILA, Philippines — The number of new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila is on a downward trend, but it does not mean that the surge is already over, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said on Thursday.

“NCR Covid cases on a downward trend with a growth rate of -9%, reproduction number of 1.03, 7-day positivity rate of 15.7%, Adar (average daily attack rate) of 8.14 and HCUR (healthcare utilization rate) of 37%,” said OCTA research fellow Guido David in a Twitter post.

“If the trends hold, we expect less than 500 new cases per day in the NCR by the end of August or the first week of September,” David added.

David, however, clarified that the downward trend does not mean the surge is over.

“It is just starting to decrease, so it is not yet over,” David told INQUIRER.net in a text message.

As of August 14, Metro Manila’s reproduction number is now at 1.03, lower than 1.18 last August 7.

The reproduction number (r-naught) indicates how infectious a disease is.

For instance, an r-naught of 1 means that each carrier can transmit the virus to one person, and the current r-naught of 1.03 means that each existing infection would cause more than one new infection.

 The positivity rate in the NCR also decreased to 15.7 as of August 16 from 17.1 as of August 9.

Despite the decrease, the latest positivity rate of the metropolis is higher than the World Health Organization’s benchmark of five percent.

 Metro Manila remains under the moderate risk classification for COVID-19, according to the Department of Health (DOH).

As of Wednesday, the DOH COVID-19 tracker reported a total of 3,840,943 COVID-19 cases nationwide, including 35,101 active cases, 3,744,669 recoveries and 61,173 deaths.

 gsg