COVID-19 growth rate in Metro Manila drops to 5%, cases may peak next week — Octa

By: Daniza Fernandez - 2 years ago

FILE PHOTO: More commuters are out in Metro Manila after a lowered COVID-19 alert level. INQUIRER/RICHARD A. REYES

MANILA, Philippines — COVID-19 growth rate in Metro Manila slid down to five percent this week, indicating that cases in the capital region may peak next week, independent analytics group Octa Research said on Wednesday.

Octa Research fellow Dr. Guido David said the COVID-19 growth rate in the National Capital Region (NCR) dropped to 5% as of August 9 from 14% last August 2.

The reproduction number, meanwhile, went down to 1.17 as of August 6 from 1.24 last August 2.

New COVID-19 infections recorded on August 8 and 9 have also gone lower to to 1,452 and 828, respectively.

The positivity rate in the capital region likewise dipped from 17.4 percent to 15.9 percent.

“This once again gives us hope that the peak of the wave in the NCR may occur by next week (no guarantees, of course),” David posted on Twitter.

NCR growth rate down to 5%. Rt = 1.17. HCUR at 35.7%. Positivity rate at 15.9%. Hoping (and projecting) cases peak by next week in the NCR. Stay safe everyone! #COVID19 @dzbb @allangatus @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzrhnews @ali_sotto @PhilstarNews @MlaStandard @PTVph pic.twitter.com/NXspCMHm8F

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) August 10, 2022

READ: Metro Manila COVID-19 cases still rising, but no peak yet

“The trends need to be consistent for about a week before we can confidently say there is a downward trend,” he added.

However, the seven-day average of COVID-19 cases inched up, from 1,209 to 1,275, despite the decrease in indicators.

David explained that this is the case as the reproduction number is still above zero.

“[T]he growth rate is positive. [W]hen growth rate is > 0, cases are still increasing,” David told INQUIRER.net in a message.

“[W]e want growth rate to become negative (decreasing). [W]e are not there yet,” he further pointed out.

Moreover, the healthcare utilization rate is at 35.7 percent. Intensive care unit occupancy rose to 31 percent.

Metro Manila is at moderate risk for COVID-19, the Department of Health earlier said.

EDV