Metro Manila COVID-19 cases still rising, but no peak yet
Metro Manila skyline at night (INQUIRER FILE PHOTO / JILSON SECKLER TIU)
MANILA, Philippines — The number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila is still rising, but it has not yet reached its peak, Dr. Guido David, a fellow of independent monitor OCTA Research, said in a Twitter post on Monday.
An average of 1,033 additional cases per day was recorded in the capital region from July 18 to 24, keeping the area under a moderate risk classification, David said.
He noted, however, that the figure reflects an increase from the seven-day average of 829 new infections logged from July 11 to 17.
David also noted that the one-week growth rate in Metro Manila has remained relatively flat over three weeks.
In a message to INQUIRER.net, David said the COVID-19 growth rate of Metro Manila was 25 percent last week, 29 percent two weeks ago, and 24 percent three weeks ago.
The growth rate refers to the increase in COVID-19 cases compared to the previous week.
“This means that while cases continue to rise, the rate of increase is moderate,” he said. “With a flat growth rate, it is not clear at this time when the peak in cases in NCR will occur.”
NCR new cases continue to increase. One week growth rate was 25%, reproduction number at 1.38, positivity rate at 14.1% and ADAR at 7.17. HCUR remained low at 33.1%. NCR is at moderate risk based on the metrics we use, but the bright spot is that HCUR remains below 50%. pic.twitter.com/1xbTBWDE6a
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) July 25, 2022
The current reproduction number is 1.38 and the positivity rate is 14.1 percent.
The positivity rate refers to the number of people who test positive for every 100 tests.
The reproduction number (r-naught) indicates how infectious a disease is. For instance, an r-naught of 1 means that each carrier can transmit the virus to one person, and the current r-naught of 1.38 means that each existing infection would cause more than one new infection.
David further detailed that the health care utilization rate in Metro Manila remained at a low 33.1 percent as of July 23, which is an uptick from the 30.7 percent reported last July 17.
On Sunday, the Department of Health recorded 3,657 new COVID-19 cases nationwide.
Among the fresh cases, 1,327 were accounted for in Metro Manila, followed by Cavite with 290 new infections.
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