FILE PHOTO: Commuters onboard public transport in Metro Manila. Independent analytics group OCTA Research on Thursday, February 24, 2022, says Metro Manila is ready to be placed under COVID-19 Alert Level 1 as the region may only have less than 200 cases a day by the start of March. NQUIRER/RICHARD A. REYES
MANILA, Philippines — The number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila may soar to as high as 1,000 per day by the end of June or the first week of July, based on current trends of infections, independent pandemic monitor Octa Research Group said Tuesday.
Dr. Guido David of Octa said that the COVID-19 average daily attack rate (ADAR) in the region may increase to 7 out of 100,000 cases by the end of June or the first week of July, which means that the daily number of cases would be “more or less 1,000 per day.”
“‘Yung ADAR sa Metro Manila, nasa mga 1.5 na, so tumataas siya. So posible ngang tumaas siya to 7, so ibig sabihin ‘pag umabot tayo ng more or less 1,000 cases per day sa Metro Manila nasa 7 na tayo na attack rate,” he said in a public briefing.
(Metro Manila’s ADAR is about 1.5 already so it’s increasing so it’s possible for it to increase to 7 so that means that if we reach about 1,000 cases per day in Metro Manila, our attack rate would be 7.)
“At that rate, medyo mataas na ‘yung level of cases, posible itong mangyari by the end of June or 1st week of July base sa projections natin,” David added.
(At that rate, our level of infections would already be high. This may happen by the end of June of 1st week of July based on our projections.)
David, however, said that Octa is not projecting a drastic increase in the hospital utilization rate in the metropolis.
“Tataas ito pero hindi ganoon kataas. We should still be okay at that level, siyempre kailangan talaga ng pag-iingat ng mga kababayan natin,” he said.
(The hospital utilization rate will increase but not that much. We should still be okay at that level but of course Filipinos need to be careful.)
Once the daily number of infections increase to 500 to 1,000 cases per day, Metro Manila would be classified under “moderate risk” already, David said.
But it does not necessarily mean that Metro Manila would be placed under Alert Level 2 because the government would be monitoring the hospital utilization rate.
David, however, said that the number of COVID-19 cases may reach its peak by 1st week or 2nd week of July.
“Tumataas ‘yung bilang ng kaso, hindi pa natin makita ‘yung pagbaba niyan. Anytime soon baka ‘yung peak niyan, it will happen sometime 1st or 2nd week of July kaya para matulungan natin na hindi’ masyadong tumaas yung kaso, kailangan ‘yung pag-iingat natin,” he said.
(The number of cases is really rising, we are not yet seeing its decline. Anytime soon, maybe we will see its peak by 1st week or 2nd week of July so we need to be careful so we can avoid the drastic rise of cases.)
Octa Research earlier said that infections in Metro Manila could cross over to the “moderate risk” threshold in the coming weeks.
On Tuesday, the Department of Health (DOH) said COVID-19 average daily cases in Metro Manila rose to 255, with the positivity rate climbing to 4.4 percent.