W&R CEO Professor Robin Garcia speaking before the European Chamber of Commerce – Photo from W&R
MANILA, Philippines — With just 10 days before the Philippine national elections, presidential candidates have intensified their campaigns which could be a glimpse of a “polarized society” Filipinos will have after the May 9 polls, research and advisory firm W&R said.
“The campaign reflects the polarization of society that might be carried over to the next administration,” Dr. Robin Michael Garcia, Founder, and CEO of W&R.
“This is what political life and social life would look like post-election, which could be a potential political instability that could impact the business sector.”
Just this week, supporters of presidential aspirants former senator Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos, Jr., and Vice-president Leni Robredo faced off at a retail center in Makati. Crowds from the opposing teams chanted the names of the respective candidates they were supporting that prompted security personnel of the mall to intervene.
Garcia said this is an indication of a polarized society that either of the two leading candidates could face as president. This translates to a society that is focused more on politics rather than solutions to the economic crisis.
“Analyzing the current situation and forecasting post-election scenarios from a political risk perspective, investors would want to see solutions, especially post-pandemic solutions. How the economy can rebound is the primary concern, and obviously, the polarization will not help in the achievement of post-pandemic recovery, especially on the economic side,” he said.
Of the presidential candidates, Manila Mayor Francisco “Isko” Moreno Domagoso and Senator Panfilo “Ping” Lacson are among those who have presented concrete solutions and have the experience but are, unfortunately, ranking poorly in surveys.
Prof. Cleve Arguelles, who is Head of Research, said Moreno had initially positioned himself as a centrist political candidate who was more concerned about steering the country toward recovery and bringing basic social services to the public. He said that initially, the public was driven to consider Moreno over his “Bilis Kilos” campaign, which he deemed as a very promising message.
Mayor Isko Moreno continues to stick with his “peace of mind” messaging and focus on providing candidates a centrist alternative given the polarizing political landscape.
“If I were to consider an election base between Marcos, Jr., and Moreno, it would definitely change the tone of the election and what the voters’ considerations are,” Arguelles said in a Rappler interview.
“They would probably be fighting for the presidency in different terms. It would probably be about who will be better in continuing the policies of President Duterte, and who will deliver the better projects on the ground.”
Arguelles said an Isko-Leni tandem would have been “ideal,” regardless of who would run as the president or the vice-president. In another scenario, Arguelles said the 2022 presidential election could have easily been a two-way or three-way race, had the unity talks pushed through.