OCTA: Metro Manila may reach very low COVID-19 risk status by March
(FILE) Unvaccinated individuals may ride public transport without fear of being shooed away or offloaded as the “no vaccine, no ride” policy is lifted from Feb. 1 to 15 when Metro Manila comes under alert level 2. —RICHARD A. REYES
MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila may reach the very low-risk classification for COVID-19 transmission by March, the independent analytics group OCTA Research said Friday.
According to OCTA Research, Metro Manila has been seeing an average of 600 new COVID-19 cases per day since February 8.
“With daily numbers beating the January 20 projections, we now look at the revised January 24 projections, which have been close to actuals over the past few days. The projections show a decrease to less than 200 new cases per day by the end of February,” the group said in its report.
“The magic number to achieve very low-risk classification is 140 new cases per day, which seems possible by March,” it added.
NCR targets very low risk classification by March. Reproduction number now 0.23, ADAR 6.55, HCUR 29%, positivity rate 8.8%. Compliance with health protocols still advised. @dzbb @DZAR1026 @allangatus @dzrhnews @News5PH @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @ali_sotto @PhilstarNews @RMMendozaMT pic.twitter.com/lmzIg2TFXh
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) February 11, 2022
Metro Manila was classified as very low risk for COVID-19 in December 2021 before the Omicron surge. At present, OCTA Research classifies the region at low risk status.
Metrics being used by OCTA are based on the US nonprofit COVID Act Now and are different from metrics being used by the Department of Health (DOH). Based on the latest update of the DOH on Tuesday, Metro Manila was still at moderate risk status.
According to OCTA Research, the reproduction number, or the estimated number of new cases from one patient, is currently 0.23 in Metro Manila. The average daily attack rate is 6.55 per 100,000 population, while the positivity rate is 8.8 percent.
Healthcare utilization, meanwhile, is at 28.6 percent, while intensive care utilization is at 30.8 percent.
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