MANILA, Philippines — The actual number of COVID-19 cases in the National Capital Region (NCR) could be 1.8 times higher than the Department of Health (DOH) reports, a fellow at the independent analytics group said Monday.
Octa Research fellow Guido David made the projection based on the random antigen testing conducted by the Department of Transportation (DOTr) on January 26 and 27.
“The random antigen tests conducted by DOTr on 343 railway passengers on January 26 and 27 showed a positivity rate of 0.6 percent, less than one percent. Assuming NCR population of 14 million, then the margin of error is ±5% (with 95%confidence interval),” David posted on Twitter.
Actual cases in the NCR could be less than twice the official reported numbers of DOH, based on DOTr random antigen testing on January 26 – 27. This includes unreported cases. Note that on Jan 13, the estimate was about 10 times higher than reported numbers. @dzbb @DZAR1026 pic.twitter.com/L7YjgYq1T5
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 31, 2022
Citing DOH data, David noted that COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila from January 20 to 29 were 46,000.
“This means that the actual number of cases, which include asymptomatic and symptomatic cases not tested, and those tested with antigen but not reported, could be 1.8 times higher than the official numbers reported by DOH,” he added.
David pointed out that the estimate is lower than his earlier evaluation that cases could be 10 times higher.
READ: Metro Manila COVID-19 cases could be 6-15 times higher than official numbers —OCTA
“This confirms that not only the number of new cases [is] decreasing, but even the number of unreported cases is also decreasing at a significant rate,” David concluded.
The country on Sunday registered 16,953 new COVID-19 cases, driving the overall caseload to 3,545,680.
READ: PH registers 16,953 new cases of COVID-19; total cases at 3,545,680
Of the new infections, 2,008 were recorded in Metro Manila.
READ: 2,008 new COVID-19 cases logged in Metro Manila on Sunday — OCTA