SPOT CHECK Enforcers of the Inter-Agency Council for Traffic monitor passengers of public utility vehicles for compliance with health protocols on Wednesday. Expect stricter checks in Metro Manila starting Jan. 17, when passengers must present vaccination cards to enter or move around Metro Manila using mass transport systems. —GRIG C. MONTEGRANDE
MANILA, Philippines — COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila could be six to 15 times higher than the official numbers reported by the Department of Health, a fellow of the analytics group OCTA Research said Sunday.
Dr. Guido David cited the results of the random antigen tests conducted by the Department of Transportation (DOTr) on passengers from January 12 and 13 wherein it showed a 12.4-percent positivity rate.
“Assuming NCR population of 14 million, then the margin of error is ±5% (with 95% confidence interval), for a prevalence range of 7.4 to 17.4,” David said on Twitter.
Per @IanEsguerra‘s question on the range of actual infections in the NCR (based on this morning’s interview). It could be 6 to 15 times higher than reported numbers, based on DOTr survey and 95% confidence interval. Thanks to @biomathph. @dzbb @allangatus @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews pic.twitter.com/VwrM39Dxng
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 16, 2022
“Comparing with the NCR population, this gives us a range of about 1.04 to 2.44 million people infected with SARS-CoV2 as of January 13,” he added.
Department of Health (DOH) figures presented that the total number of new reported cases in Metro Manila was about 165,000 from January 1 to 14, David pointed out.
“This means that the actual number of cases, which include asymptomatic and symptomatic cases not tested, and those tested with antigen but not reported, could be 6 to 15 times higher than the official numbers reported by DOH, within a 95% confidence interval,” he explained.
Early this day, David said Metro Manila’s daily COVID-19 growth rate dropped to 2 percent from Saturday’s 3 percent due to either peaking cases or reaching the limits of testing capacity.
The country on Saturday logged an all-time high single-day tally of 39,004 new COVID-19 cases, raising the overall infection count to 3,168,379.