Metro Manila’s daily COVID-19 growth rate drops to 2% — Octa Research

File photo shows a family riding past a vaccination facility at the Quirino Grandstand on January 2, 2022,  a day before Metro Manila reverts to alert level 3 following a spike in COVID-19 cases. (MARIANNE BERMUDEZ / INQUIRER)

MANILA, Philippines —The National Capital Region’s (NCR) daily COVID-19 growth rate dropped to two percent, independent analytics group Octa Research said on Sunday.

Octa Research fellow Guido David said that the decrease could be attributed to either peaking cases or reaching the limits of testing capacity.

“As a result, the growth rate of the 7-day average was 2%, compared to 3% from the previous day,” he said on Twitter.

NCR daily growth rate just 2%. The NCR could be close to the peak in new cases, or the NCR has reached its limits in testing capacity. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @News5PH @DZAR1026 @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @EagleNews @ABSCBNNews @sofiatomacruz @PhilstarNews @haydeesampang pic.twitter.com/qkSPVvyf6e

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) January 16, 2022

“The decrease in growth rate could have two possibilities: the trend of new cases in the NCR is close to the peak, or new cases in the NCR are limited by the testing capacity, i.e. the volume of testing is not sufficient given the number of new cases,” David further explained.

David said that if COVID-19 infections begin to lower in Metro Manila over the next week, the drop in the growth rate was caused by peaking cases.

Octa Research fellow Guido David (Screengrab from Pandesal Forum-Kamuning Bakery Cafe Facebook Live)

If the decreased growth rate is caused by limited testing, however, he region “will see the number of new cases continue to hover around the same level, until the downward trend happens.”

 David on Saturday noted that the COVID-19 daily growth rate in Metro Manila is steadily declining.

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