OCTA: PH may see 4,000 new COVID-19 cases on New Year’s Day

MANILA, Philippines — The country may have about 4,000 new COVID-19 cases, including about 3,000 in Metro Manila, on New Year’s Day as the region reports a positivity rate of 21 percent, OCTA Research said Saturday.

“The positivity rate in the NCR [National Capital Region] jumped to 3.18. This projects to about 3,000 new cases in the NCR on January 1 and about 4,000 in the country,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said over Twitter.

The positivity rate or the percentage of people testing positive for COVID-19 among all those tested, in Metro Manila was at 8.4 percent as of December 28. The ideal positivity rate is five percent or lower, according to the World Health Organization.

It is 2022 and back to tweet reports :( The positivity rate in the NCR increased to 21%. The reproduction number jumped to 3.19. This projects to about 3000 new cases in the NCR on January 1 and about 4000 in the country. Stay safe in 2022. @dzbb @dzrhnews @allangatus @DZAR1026 pic.twitter.com/RteKDOk9ox

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) December 31, 2021

Meanwhile, the reproduction number in the region also increased to 3.19 as of December 28, according to David. It was at 2.19 as of December 27.

Reproduction number refers to the average number of people being infected by a positive case. OCTA Research earlier said the figure should be less than one to indicate a decline in transmission.

Metro Manila remains at moderate risk for COVID-19 based on OCTA Research’s metrics.

The region now has 5,472 active cases of COVID-19, based on the tracker of the Department of Health.

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JPV