Rise in Metro Manila COVID-19 cases probably not just a ‘holiday uptick’ – OCTA fellow

MANILA, Philippines — The rise in COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila may no longer just be a “holiday uptick,” according to a Twitter post made on Tuesday by Dr. Guido David, a fellow of independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research,

David said the daily positivity rate of Metro Manila had gone above 5 percent and its seven-day positivity rate stood at 2.4 percent.

“New cases in the country are projected to hit 1,200 by December 29, 2021, with at least 400 in the NCR [National Capital Region as Metro Manila is also known],” said David.

“There is now concern that this is not just a holiday uptick,” he added.

12.28.21 NCR positivity rate exceeds 5%. Cases are projected to hit 1,200 (with at least 400 in the NCR) by 12.29.21. Please be extra careful. @dzbb @allangatus @dzrhnews @DZAR1026 @News5PH @NewsRmn @dzme_1530khz @ANCALERTS @roribabyko @NET25TV @BomboRadyoNews @haydeesampang pic.twitter.com/086ECtdIgD

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) December 28, 2021

The reproduction number in Metro Manila also increased to 1.03 percent.

The reproduction number refers to the average number of persons who can be potentially infected.

“This rapid increase in the reproduction number could only mean one thing. Let us continue to be extra vigilant and not complacent in following minimum public health protocols,” David said.

NCR Reproduction number up to 1.03 as of 12.25.21. Based on testing, the reproduction number could be up to 1.39. If this holds, cases could escalate very quickly. @dzbb @allangatus @News5PH @DZAR1026 @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @dwiz882 @dzme_1530khz @ABSCBNNews @NET25TV @manilabulletin pic.twitter.com/yTsVJCrr2z

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) December 28, 2021

Earlier, the Department of Health (DOH) registered 421 new coronavirus cases and 248 recoveries — the fifth consecutive day when it recorded more infections than recoveries since the daily cases dipped to less than 1,000.

Moreover, the positivity rate also rose to 2.6 percent, bringing the overall case count to 2,839,111.

READ: COVID-19 positivity rate in PH now at 2.6%; 421 new cases logged

In a separate advisory, the DOH also took note of the rise in COVID-19 cases in the last seven days to 351 cases per day from the 289 recorded in the previous week.

Calabarzon and Metro Manila showed a slight uptick in the positivity rate — from 0.6 percent to 0.9 percent and 1.4 percent, respectively.

However, most of these cases are mild or asymptomatic, the DOH said.

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