Expect 27K active cases by yearend with increased mobility, low MPHS compliance

Department of Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire.
INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines — Active COVID-19 cases in the Philippines may reach up to 27,000 by the end of December if the government would increase the people’s mobility, compounded by their complacency in following the minimum public health standards (MPHS), Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said on Monday.

As of Sunday, the country’s active COVID-19 infections stood at 21,101.

During the Department of Health media forum, Vergeire said that allowing more mobility and declining compliance with the  MPHS would result in an uptrend in COVID-19 cases.

“Similar to what was observed in countries with case increases, the projections at the national level showed that in scenarios where there is increased mobility from 94 percent to 98 percent and a corresponding decrease in the compliance to minimum public health standards by 13 up to 22 percent, there may be an uptrend of cases,” she explained.

“In these scenarios, active cases may reach up to 20,763 to 21,441 by the end of November and 21,940 to 27,538 by the end of the year,” she added.

However, if the mobility would be at 90 percent and current compliance with MPHS would be observed, the country may just have around 9,000 to 10,000 active COVID-19 cases by the end of December, Vergeire said.

“The estimated active cases in these scenarios were almost three times higher by December 31 when compared to the scenarios where the compliance to minimum public health standards were maintained and active cases only range from 9,925 to 10,122,” the health official noted.

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