DOH sees further decline in active COVID-19 cases

Department of Health (DOH) Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire INQUIRER FILE PHOTO

MANILA, Philippines — Active COVID-19 cases in the country could go down to as low as 6,071 by Dec. 15, from 23,200 as of Nov. 19, if the current mobility, compliance with minimum public health standards and detection to isolation period of 5.5 days are maintained, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said on Saturday.

But if mobility increases to 98 percent of prepandemic level, from 82 percent as of the first week of November, and compliance with health standards goes down by up to 24 percent, active cases may hit about 20,600 by mid-December, Vergeire said, citing Department of Health (DOH) projections.

“Compared to the number of active cases now … this is still low and we can see it continue to go down, but we still have to be careful by complying with safety protocols,” she said at the Laging Handa briefing.

For the 15th time this month, the number of new COVID-19 cases in the country remained below 2,000, the tally released by the DOH on Saturday showed.

Eighth straight day

The Philippines also inched closer to containing the spread of coronavirus as the positivity rate remained below the 5-percent ceiling set by the World Health Organization (WHO) for the eighth straight day since Nov. 13.

The DOH’s latest bulletin showed that the 1,474 new infections brought the total number of recorded cases to 2,824,499.

While 2,565 were added to the recoveries, which boosted the number of survivors to 2,755,526, the health department said the pandemic fatalities hit 46,903 with the addition of 205 deaths.

The DOH said the 1,474 individuals who were found infected were among the 38,636 tested on Thursday. This translates to a positivity rate of 3.2 percent.

The COVID-19 transmission in the country can be considered contained if this positivity level remains or goes further down for another six days.

In its projection, the DOH said active cases may dip to 12,264 to 12,584 at the end of the month before further declining to 6,071 to 7,301 by Dec. 15 “in scenarios where the current mobility and compliance to MPHS (minimum public health standards) were maintained.”

“However, an uptrend of active cases was observed in scenarios where there is increased mobility from 95 to 98 percent and a corresponding decrease in compliance to MPHS by 22 to 24 percent,” the DOH said.

“In these scenarios, active cases may reach up to 18,338 to 19,210 by the end of November and 15,956 to 20,649 by mid-December,” it added.

In Metro Manila, it said active cases might fall to 2,391 to 2,402 cases this month, and further slide down to 1,241 to 1,355 in the first half of December, if the “current mobility and MPHS compliance are maintained.”

Call for support

Also on Saturday, officials expressed confidence that the public would support the government’s three-day national vaccination event even if only one of these days would be a nonworking holiday.

Vergeire said the government would do all it could to make sure the event would be successful and would reach its target of inoculating 15 million.

But even if the 15 million would not be reached, she said reaching 50 to 70 percent of this target would be “good enough.”

Restituto Padilla, spokesperson of the National Task Force (NTF) Against COVID-19, said the NTF believed the public would join the national vaccination event.

“We believe the bayanihan spirit is strong and very much alive in the country,” Padilla said.

He said the task force had received encouraging feedback from health workers, as different medical associations had committed to help the vaccination drive.