DOH sees active COVID-19 cases in PH dropping to 6,000 by Dec. 15

Parents and children relax at a public park, as the country’s capital region loosens coronavirus disease (COVID-19) restrictions, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, November 2, 2021. Picture taken November 2, 2021. REUTERS/Lisa Marie David

MANILA, Philippines — The number of COVID-19 active cases in the Philippines could drop to 6,000 or 7,000 by December 15 if the current mobility level and compliance to minimum public health standards (MPHS) are maintained, the Department of Health (DOH) said on Saturday.

In a statement, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said the number of active COVID-19 cases may range from 12,264 to 12,584  by the end of November and would further drop to 6,071 to 7,301 by December 15 — that is, if the current mobility rate of 89 percent nationwide is maintained.

Vergeire, on the other hand,  there will be an uptrend of active cases once there is an increase in the mobility rate from 95 to 98 percent along with a corresponding decrease in the compliance to MPHS by 22 to 24 percent.

“The estimated active cases in these scenarios were 1.5 times higher by the end of November and 2.6 times higher by December 15 when compared to the scenarios where the compliance to MPHS was maintained,” Vergeire said.

Vergeire added that projections for the National Capital Region (NCR) are similar.

“Projected active cases for NCR will continue to decline and maybe at 2,391 to 2,402 cases as of November 30 and 1,241 to 1,355 as of December 15 when current mobility and MPHS compliance are maintained,” she said.

The current mobility rate in NCR is 70 percent.

Vergeire said the active cases in NCR will increase if the mobility rate increases from 88 to 83 percent and the MPHS decreases from 26 to 33 percent.

“Active cases may reach up to 2,711 to 3,036 cases by the end of November and 1,843 to 2,691 cases by Mid-December,” Vergeire said.

As of Saturday, the active cases in the country are at 22,070.

There are now 2,824,499 cases of COVID-19 in the Philippines, including 2,755,526 recoveries and 46,903 deaths, according to the DOH.

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