DOH: COVID cases may reach 52k by December with relaxed health standards

FILE PHOTO: Colorized scanning electron micrograph of an apoptotic cell (red) infected with SARS-COV-2 virus particles (yellow), also known as novel coronavirus, isolated from a patient sample. Image captured at the NIAID Integrated Research Facility (IRF) in Fort Detrick, Maryland. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, NIH/Handout via REUTERS.

MANILA, Philippines — The country’s active COVID-19 cases may reach up to 52,000 by December 15, if there will be increased mobility, decreased adherence to health protocols, and slower interval between case detection and isolation, the Department of Health (DOH) said on Tuesday.

“Kung ang ating pagiging mas mobile ay sasabayan ng pagbaba ng ating adherence to minimum public health standards (MHPS) at mabagal na naman ang paghahanap at isolate ng kaso, posibleng umakyat ang active cases natin to 49 to 52,000 as of December 15,” Dr. Alethea De Guzman, OIC-Director of the DOH Epidemiology Bureau, said in an online media forum.

(If our increased mobility will be coupled with decreased adherence to MHPS and the slower interval between case detection to isolation, our active cases may reach up to 49,000 to 52,000.)

However, De Guzman said that if the current mobility level and the interval between detection to isolation is maintained, and the public continues to follow health protocols, the country may only have around 2,100 active cases by December 15.

Projection of COVID-19 cases according to the FASSSTER team | Table from the Department of Health

The projections were made by the DOH’s FASSSTER team, the group that conducts Feasibility Analysis of Syndromic Surveillance Using Spatio-Temporal Epidemiological Modeler For Early Detection of Diseases.

Meanwhile, in Metro Manila, COVID cases may reach up to 3,535 by the middle of December if there will be increased mobility, decreased adherence to health protocols, and slower interval between case detection and isolation.

But if the current mobility level and the interval between detection to isolation is maintained, and the public continues to follow health standards, the region may only have 1,035 active cases by December, according to De Guzman.

The country has 43,185 active cases of COVID-19 while Metro Manila has 8,439 active cases of the disease as of Monday.

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