OCTA: PH’s COVID-19 cases may decrease to pre-Delta surge level by end-October
A multitude of people have been visiting the Manila Bay Dolomite Beach since its reopening to the public last week following the downgrading of the quarantine restrictions in NCR to Alert Level 3. Screengrab from YouTube / DENR
MANILA, Philippines — The number of new COVID-19 cases in the country is expected to decrease to the pre-Delta variant surge level by the end of October, OCTA Research said Thursday, citing the current seven-day average of new infections.
According to OCTA fellow Guido David, the current seven-day average of new cases in the entire country is 6,416, with a reproduction number of 0.55. He said this is the lowest seven-day average since late July.
Meanwhile, the seven-day average of new cases in Metro Manila is 1,156, with a reproduction number of 0.47. Reproduction number is the average number of secondary infection cases from one patient.
10.21.21. Cases expected to decrease to pre-delta surge level by end of October. Current 7-day average in PH is 6416 and 1156 in the NCR. Reproduction number in PH is 0.55 and 0.47 in the NCR. @dzbb @allangatus @DZAR1026 @cnnphilippines @dzrhnews @NewsRmn @News5PH @dwiz882 pic.twitter.com/OnkjuUlvQx
— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) October 21, 2021
“Based on current trends, the country is tracking at less than 5k new cases (7-day average) by end of October with less than 1k in the NCR. This means we expect numbers to return to pre-delta surge level by end of October,” said David.
Article continues after this advertisementOn Wednesday, the Department of Health reported only 642 new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, and 3,656 new cases nationwide. The capital region now has 13,439 active cases of the disease while the entire country has 67,061 active coronavirus infections.
Article continues after this advertisementHealth Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said that if the decline in COVID-19 cases continues, Metro Manila may be placed under the less restrictive alert level 2 “in the coming weeks.”
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