‘NCR Plus 8’ cases show downward trend–OCTA

RETURN TO THE SCHOOL LAB Medical technology students resume in-person classes at the University of Santo Tomas in Manila following the easing of COVID-19 restrictions in the capital region to alert level 3. —RICHARD A. REYES

MANILA, Philippines — COVID-19 cases in so-called NCR Plus 8, or the National Capital Region and eight major areas including Cebu, Davao, Batangas, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Pampanga and Rizal, are on “a downward trend,’’ according to the independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research Group.

“All of NCR Plus 8 are on a downward trend with [a] reproduction number of less than 0.55,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said in a Twitter post.

Specifically, David said, the reproduction number in NCR, or the number of people a sick person can also possibly infect is 0.52.

Meanwhile, the positivity rate of Metro Manila, or the number of people who tested positive out of the number of people tested for the virus, is 8 percent, much lower than the 12 percent positivity rate reported for the entire country on Tuesday.

Of the other areas in NCR Plus 8, Rizal has the highest reproduction number, at 0.55.

However, it is still considered low since the ideal reproduction number is less than 1, indicating a downtrend.

In terms of positivity rate, Laguna has the highest at 17 percent, while Cavite and Cebu City both have the lowest positivity rate at 6 percent. (See related story in Regions, Page A5.)

The Department of Health (DOH) earlier said the decline in cases in the country is “not artificial,” after the number of new daily cases have started going down from a high of over 20,000 cases in a single day during the surge to less than 5,000 daily cases.

Lowest in 3 months

Also on Wednesday, the DOH said it recorded 3,656 new COVID-19 cases in the country, the lowest daily count since July 13, when there were 3,604 infections recorded. The latest figure brought the national total to 2,735,369 cases.

There were 228 new recoveries, which pushed the total number of survivors to 2,627,331, while there were five reported deaths, raising the death toll to 40,977.

But the the DOH explained that these “low numbers” were again due to technical issues affecting COVIDKaya, the government repository for COVID-19 data.

“Additional recoveries and deaths shall be reflected in the case bulletin in the following days,” the DOH said.

Overcapacity issues

COVIDKaya has been plagued with server overcapacity issues for weeks, but the DOH said the Department of Information and Communications Technology is “currently addressing these issues.”

The recoveries and deaths left 67,061 active cases or currently sick individuals in the country. Of this number, the majority or 77.9 percent are mild cases, 6.8 percent are asymptomatic, 2 percent are in critical condition, 4.6 percent are severe cases and 8.6 percent are moderate cases.

While the number of new cases in the country has steadily been going down, the positivity rate remains above the World Health Organization’s recommendation of below 5 percent.

On Wednesday, the DOH said positivity in the country is 11.6 percent, meaning of the 42,296 individuals tested on Monday, around 4,906 tested positive for the virus.

Still, the DOH reminded the public to “not lower your guard, but rather keep adhering to minimum public health and safety standards, and get vaccinated when it is your turn.” —Patricia Denise M. Chiu