NCR’s COVID-19 reproduction number drops to 0.67

FILE PHOTO: An area on granular lockdown as such a scheme will be pilot tested in Metro Manila to stop the spread of the more contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. INQUIRER/NINO JESUS ORBETA

MANILA, Philippines — Daily new cases of COVID-19 in Metro Manila could drop below 1,000 per day by the end of October as the reproduction number in the region further decreased to 0.67, independent pandemic monitor OCTA Research said Thursday.

The reproduction number decreased from 0.88 from the previous week to 0.67, Octa said.

Reproduction number is the average number of individuals being infected by a positive case. The research group earlier said the ideal reproduction number is below one.

The group also noted a 32% decline in the 7-day average of new cases while positivity rate also decreased to 14% from 18% the previous week.

“Current trends project to 1,500 to less than 1,000 cases per day in the National Capital Region by the end of October,” OCTA fellow Dr. Guido David said in a Twitter post.

10.7.21. The 7-day average in the NCR decreased to 2,642 while the reproduction number decreased to 0.67 and positivity rate decreased to 14%. Based on current trends, the NCR could have 1,500 to below 1,000 new cases per day by end of October. @dzbb @cnnphilippines @allangatus pic.twitter.com/4FA8JX6ULE

— Dr. Guido David (@iamguidodavid) October 7, 2021

David earlier said Metro Manila is already at moderate risk for COVID-19.

The capital region remains under Alert Level 4 until October 15 as the government extended its pilot implementation of its new alert level system.

EDV