FILE PHOTO: Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire. INQUIRER file photo / EDWIN BACASMAS
MANILA, Philippines — Daily new COVID-19 infections in Metro Manila may increase to about 6,000 per day by the end of September but the number is also seen to decline by October, the Department of Health (DOH) said Friday.
Active cases in the region may then increase to 58,000 by the end of the month, an increase from the 41,000 active cases recorded as of September 23, Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said.
Meanwhile, daily cases and active cases in NCR are seen to decrease to 4,450 and 46,000 by the end of October, respectively.
Vergeire though emphasized that these projections “are not set in stone” and may change depending on the current pandemic situation.
“These projections are not set in stone. These are projections, it doesn’t mean that it is going to happen with 100% certainty,” she said in an online media forum.
She said many factors play into the models used for projections, such as the vaccination coverage, the compliance of minimum public health standards, and the duration between detection and isolation confirmed COVID-19 cases.
As of September 23, active cases recorded in the National Capital Region is at 41,609, while daily cases were at 4,505, according to the DOH’s COVID-19 tracker.
Average daily cases in NCR from September 17 to 23 is also at 4,480, Vergeire said.
Octa research fellow Guido David earlier said the average daily new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila is expected to be as low as 2,000 by October, as the reproduction number in the region has gone down to 0.99 which signals a slowdown in the transmission of the coronavirus.
Metro Manila is currently under moderate risk classification, with 68.30% bed utilization, and 77.13% intensive care unit utilization, Vergeire said.
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