La Niña likely to prevail in last quarter of 2021 — Pagasa

MANILA, Philippines — There is a 70 to 80 percent chance that La Niña will form in the last quarter this year and may persist until the first quarter of 2022, the state weather bureau said on Tuesday.

For that matter, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) also upgraded the La Niña Watch to La Niña Alert.

La Niña refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years.

“Pagasa’s recent climate monitoring and analysis indicate that La Niña may emerge in the coming months,” Pagasa administrator Vicente Malano said in a statement.

“Based on the latest forecasts by most climate models and experts’ judgments, there is a 70-80% chance of La Niña forming in the last quarter of 2021 which may persist until the first quarter of 2022,” Malano added.

There is also a higher probability of “above-normal rainfall conditions” in many areas of the country in the next several months, which can be attributed to the expected stronger easterlies, enhanced Northeast monsoon and tropical cyclone occurrences, according to Malano.

“The eastern sections of the country which normally receive more rainfall during the last quarter of the year could further increase the likelihood of more adverse impacts such as floods and landslides over highly vulnerable areas,” Malano said.

“With this scenario, all concerned agencies are advised to take precautionary measures to mitigate the potential adverse impacts of this looming La Niña,” he added.

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