OCTA monitors 12% rise in NCR COVID cases, but reproduction number now below critical level

FILE PHOTO: A health worker walks around to check on coronavirus disease (COVID-19) patients admitted in the chapel of Quezon City General Hospital turned into a COVID-19 ward amid rising infections, in Quezon City, Metro Manila, Philippines, August 20, 2021. REUTERS/Eloisa Lopez

MANILA, Philippines — Average daily COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila rose from 4,147  from August 19 to 25, to 4,637 new cases per day from August 26 to September 1, OCTA Research said Thursday.

In its latest monitoring report, the independent pandemic monitor said this was an increase of 12 percent.

Meanwhile, the reproduction number, or the average number of people estimated to be infected by one case, is at 1.39, which is below the critical level cutoff of 1.4.

Table from OCTA Research

“Based on current trends, it is possible that the reproduction number in the NCR may decrease below 1 by the third week of September. Until then, we should expect new cases to continue to increase, albeit at a slower growth rate,” OCTA said.

According to OCTA Research, the average daily attack rate (ADAR) in NCR was 33.20 per 100,000 population per day which is at critical level. ADAR is the number of new daily cases per 100,000 people.

Metro Manila’s positivity rate or the percentage of people found positive for the virus among those tested, was at 24 percent. On the other hand, hospital bed occupancy was at 69 percent while ICU occupancy was 71 percent.

Metro Manila has 39,388 active COVID-19 cases as of Wednesday, based on the COVID-19 tracker of the Department of Health.

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