COVID-19 reproduction rate in NCR may drop below 1% by mid-September — OCTA
Residents of Lupang Pangako in Barangay Payatas, Quezon City receive cash aid thru the government’s Social Amelioration Program (SAP) at the Lupang Pangako Covered Court in Quezon City on Wednesday. (INQUIRER/GRIG C. MONTEGRANDE)
MANILA, Philippines — The COVID-19 reproduction rate in Metro Manila may drop to less than one by mid-September, the Octa research group projected on Monday.
Guido David, a fellow from Octa group, said the current reproduction rate in Metro Manila has gone down to 1.47 but could further decrease to less than one by Sept. 13 to 14.
“Nakita natin sa Metro Manila, bumababa ‘yung hawaan, yung reproduction number nasa 1.47 na. Nakita natin na maaaring umabot na siya sa less than one pagdating ng kalagitnaan ng September. By September 13 to 14,” he said in a televised public briefing.
(In Metro Manila, the transmission rate has decreased, the reproduction number is already down to 1.47. We project that this could drip futher to less than one in mid-September, by Sept. 13 or 14.)
He, however, clarified that the decrease in the reproduction number could arrive earlier or be delayed, depending on many factors.
“Maraming factors dito kasama ‘yung pagsunod ng ating kababayan sa health protocols and implementation ng quarantine restrictions,” he said.
(This involves many factors, including the public’s compliance with health protocols and the implementation of quarantine restrictions.)
The decrease in the number of daily new infections has not yet been observed in Metro Manila despite the two-week implementation of enhanced community quarantine.
New cases could also rise to 20,000 a day in the next few days, as the effect of the lockdown is yet to be seen.
“Kapag nagkaroon ng lockdown hindi naman agad agad bumababa ‘yung bilang ng kaso. Three to four weeks bago makita ‘yung pagbaba ng kaso,” David added.
(When lockdowns are implemented, its effects are not immediately seen. It takes three to four weeks before the effects could be felt.)
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