OCTA: Sampling shows PH’s Delta variant cases possibly at 2000-mark

MANILA, Philippines — Based on sampling, the number of COVID-19 Delta variant cases in the country could already be at the 2,000-mark, the OCTA Research group said Tuesday, citing a “fairly wide range of sampling error.”

“As of the latest data, we see 26 percent of cases sampled were the Delta variant and if that were the case, that could be as much as 2,000 cases of the Delta variant in the Philippines,” OCTA Research fellow Guido David said in an online forum hosted by the Federation of Filipino-Chinese Chambers of Commerce and Industry, Inc.

“We are not saying we know this as a fact. What we are saying is this is the projection based on the sampling. There is a fairly wide range of sampling error here but this is what is possible,” he added.

Graph from the OCTA Research group

The projections, said David, is based on the limited genome sequencing efforts in the country.

“This is not the actual number of the Delta variant but what we know is the limited genome sequencing that we have accounts for just 100 samples per day out of around 8,000 cases that we have now so that is less than two percent of the total number of cases,” he said.

“So what we are showing here is the percentage of the Delta variant in the samples but if this percentage was applied in the entire number of cases, this is what we will see,” David added.

The Department of Health (DOH) has yet to comment on this latest statement from the OCTA Research group.

The DOH has so far confirmed 216 total cases of the Delta variant, including 165 that were detected locally. Of the 216 cases, 17 remain active, nine have died, and the rest have recovered.

Meanwhile, David also noted that hospital bed occupancy and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization in Metro Manila is increasing.

“If we wait too long, there will come a point when hospital beds and ICU will reach critical capacity,” he warned.

“In fact, on average, 50 new hospital beds are being occupied every day over the past few weeks. Additional 50 beds are being occupied per day, 100 beds for two days,” he added.

/MUF