NCR could see 15,000 daily COVID cases if ECQ is not imposed, DOH clarifies

FILE PHOTO: Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire. INQUIRER file photo / EDWIN BACASMAS

MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila could see a huge 15,000 daily COVID-19 cases if an enhanced community quarantine (ECQ) will not be implemented, the Department of Health (DOH) said Monday as it also clarified the projection of cases stated by Cabinet Secretary Karlo Nograles.

According to Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire, initial projections from disease surveillance tool FASSSTER showed that COVID-19 cases in the capital region could balloon if Metro Manila will stay under general community quarantine (GCQ) with heightened restrictions.

“Sabi sa projections, kapag nagkaroon ng four weeks na diretso na heightened restrictions lang tayo ng GCQ, we will have an average of 15,000 new cases per day in NCR alone,” Vergeire told an online media briefing.

“Pero kapag ginawa natin ‘yung one week of GCQ with heightened restrictions plus three weeks continuous ECQ, we can be able to control ‘yung pagtaas ng kaso to just 758 cases per day in NCR,” she added.

(But if we impose the one week of GCQ with heightened restrictions plus three weeks continuous ECQ, we can be able to control the increase of cases to just 758 per day in NCR.)

In a television interview, Nograles said that the daily COVID-19 cases might exceed 30,000 if the government does not impose ECQ in Metro Manila.

Vergeire, however, clarified that the 30,000 cases that Nograles was referring to are active cases in the capital region by the end of September if a combination of GCQ with heightened restrictions and ECQ will be implemented.

“Dito sa sinasabi ni CabSec Nograles, itong 18,000 to 30,000, ito ay ‘yung scenario na tayo ay magkakaroon ng ECQ: ‘yung 18,000 na lower limit if we will have four weeks of ECQ, and ‘yung 30,000 would be one week of GCQ with heightened restrictions plus three weeks of ECQ. Ito ay number of active cases by the end of September,” Vergeire explained.

(The figures mentioned by CabSec Nograles are the numbers we can expect with ECQ: we could reach the 18,000 cases as the lower limit if we will have four weeks of ECQ, and 30,000 if we will have one week of GCQ with heightened restrictions plus three weeks of ECQ. These are active cases by the end of September.)

“These are initial projections and these numbers may change because we are seeing that our baseline number per day ay tumataas (is increasing),” she added.

In a separate interview, Vergeire also noted that active COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila could swell to almost 500,000 by the end of September if ECQ, the strictest community quarantine status, is not imposed.

Metro Manila will be placed under ECQ from August 6 to 20 to prevent the possible surge of COVID-19 cases due to the Delta variant. The capital region will stay under GCQ with heightened and additional restrictions until August 5.

Metro Manila has 13,335 active cases of COVID-19 as of Sunday, based on the COVID-19 tracker of the DOH. Nationwide, the number of active cases is already at 63,646.

JPV