Delta variant may raise daily COVID-19 cases in NCR to 11,000 by end of September – DOH

Metro Manila skyline by night (File photo by JILSON SECKLER TIU / Philippine Daily Inquirer)

MANILA, Philippines — The Delta variant could drive Metro Manila’s daily new COVID-19 cases to 11,000 by the end of September if health protocols would not be properly imposed, the Department of Health (DOH) said Tuesday citing projections.

“We acknowledge that there is an increase of our case metrics which is why we urge people to continue adhering to the minimum health standards and get vaccinated, and for our local government units to strictly implement our protocols,” Health Undersecretary Maria Rosario Vergeire said in a statement.

“Otherwise, we might see daily active cases in NCR [National Capital Region] to reach 11,000 by the end of September 2021 based on the projections calculated by FASSSTER with the assumption that the Delta variant is 60% more transmissible, a conservative estimate of how fast the Delta variant will spread,” she added.

FASSSTER is a disease surveillance tool developed by the Ateneo De Manila University with funding from the Philippine Council for Health Research and Development of the Department of Science and Technology. It was turned over to the DOH in September 2020.

The DOH bared this projection as it confirmed an increase of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila but noted that there was no evidence yet to indicate a surge of infections, contrary to what was claimed by OCTA Research.

According to DOH, Metro Manila is showing a 19-percent increase in two-week growth rate (TWGR) of COVID-19 cases and an average daily attack rate of six cases per 100,000 population — which is considered moderate risk.

It also said that 11 cities in Metro Manila have a positive TWGR, a trend reversal from negative growth rates from three to four weeks ago. The cities are Makati, Las Piñas, Pasay, Pasig, Taguig, Paranaque, Manila, Valenzuela, Navotas, Marikina, and Caloocan.

Meanwhile, Makati, Las Piñas, and Pasay also have a high-risk average daily attack rate (ADAR).

The DOH assured that it had been working with concerned government units to ensure that “signals of increase” in cases would be immediately investigated and addressed.

“In terms of our health care capacity, nationally we are seeing low health care and intensive care utilization rate (ICUR). We are also closely monitoring pending ER admissions. While we have enough capacity as of now as evidenced by the low-risk HCUR (healthcare utilization rate) and ICUR, we must continue our preparations to strengthen local health system capacities and further augment the needed resources to maintain these low-risk levels,” said Vergeire.

“We need to make sure that we have enough capacity to cope with the demand in the event that cases continue their upward trend,” she added.

The Philippines has so far recorded 119 Delta variant cases. The DOH earlier confirmed the local transmission of the variant.

The country has 56,477 active cases of COVID-19 as of Tuesday, including the 10,315 cases in Metro Manila.

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