OCTA: NCR Plus 8 may contain COVID-19 by October if 250K jab doses injected per day
MANILA, Philippines — The NCR Plus 8 may control the spread of COVID-19 by October if the vaccination rate will be around 250,000 doses a day, the OCTA Research said Wednesday.
OCTA Research fellow and molecular biologist Fr. Nicanor Austriaco explained that containment can be achieved if 40 to 50 percent of the population in an area is vaccinated against COVID-19, resulting in an attack rate of less than 1 per 100,000 population.
This is different from so-called herd immunity, which can be attained if 70 to 80 percent of the population gets vaccinated, leading to an attack rate of almost zero.
“For containment, at the rate of 250,000 doses per day, the NCR Plus 8 will achieve containment of COVID-19 sometime in October. What does this mean? That means the risk for a surge is substantially diminished as we approach containment,” Austriaco explained in an online press briefing.
“At this rate of vaccination, sometime in October, the NCR Plus 8 would have achieved containment, and so the risk of overwhelming our healthcare facilities, the risk of a surge would practically be down to zero,” he added.
On containment, Austriaco explained that 45 percent of the estimated 37 million people in the NCR Plus 8 means 16.65 million individuals, who will need a total of 33.3 million doses for two shots.
Meanwhile, on herd immunity, 70 percent of 37 million people is 25.9 million adults, who will need a total of 51.8 million doses for complete vaccination.
The NCR Plus 8 consists of Metro Manila, Bulacan, Cavite, Rizal, Laguna, Pampanga, Batangas, Cebu, and Davao.
The Department of Health earlier said the vaccination of essential workers belonging to the A4 priority group and indigent citizens from the A5 group will first occur in these areas, as they are known to have high COVID-19 infections.
The government is aiming to reach herd immunity in the NCR Plus 8 by November.
“If the target is to achieve herd immunity in the NCR Plus 8 before Christmas, then we should be vaccinating in the NCR Plus 8 between 200,000 to 300,000 doses per day for the six-month period beginning on June 1st,” Austriaco said.
“If we are going to be doing this in the six-month period, we need to have 250,000 to 275,000 doses administered per day on average over the six-month period. This means that probably early on it will be lower, it will be higher at the end, but on average it has to be 250,000 to 275,000 per day,” he noted.
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