NCR herd immunity in less than 2 months with 300,000 vaccine doses per day — OCTA

The Sacred Heart of Jesus Parish Shrine in Kamuning Quezon City is used as a vaccination area on Monday, May 17, accomodating frontliners, senior citizens, and persons with comorbidities for AstraZeneca vaccine inoculation. 📷:Niño Jesus Orbeta/Philippine Daily Inquirer

MANILA, Philippines — Metro Manila can achieve herd immunity against COVID-19 in less than two months if 300,000 vaccine doses will be administered in the region per day, the OCTA Research group said Wednesday.

OCTA Research fellow Fr. Nicanor Austriaco O.P. told the Kapihan sa Manila Bay forum that 9.66 million adults, or 70 percent of the estimated 13.8 million Filipinos in Metro Manila, should be vaccinated to reach herd immunity in the capital region.

“For herd immunity, if we are going to vaccinate 100,000 doses per day, it would take 6 months, 200,000, three months, and 300,000, one a half months,” he said.

“If we want to achieve herd immunity in the NCR by Christmas, the target has to be around 200,000 doses per day in the NCR,” he added.

Meanwhile, to contain the COVID-19 spread in Metro Manila, Austriaco said 6.21 million individuals, or 45 percent of the estimated population in Metro Manila, should be vaccinated.

He added that containment can be achieved in the capital region in four months if 100,000 doses will be administered per day; two months if 200,000 doses will be administered per day, and; one month if 300,000 doses will be used daily.

Austriaco presented these projections as the OCTA Research group urged the government to deploy 90 percent of the vaccine supply to Metro Manila to significantly reduce the number of active COVID-19 cases in the country.

He said that at present, 65 percent of the country’s vaccine supply is being “prioritized” for the NCR while the remaining 35 percent are distributed to the rest of the country.

“Simply by increasing the percentage of vaccines we send to the NCR, we will be able to decrease the overall caseload of the pandemic,” he noted.

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