Focus PH’s limited COVID-19 vaccine supply to NCR, high-risk areas — OCTA
March 6 2021
ASTRAZENECA- Medical workers from the Ospital ng Paranaque inspects the first batch of Astrazeneca vaccine during a ceremonial vaccination after the British-Swede made vaccine arrived in the country last thursday. 200 doses out of the 487,000 vaccines were given to Paranaque as it rolls out early for health workers on saturday. The country is expected to recieve about 5.5 million to 9.2 million AstraZeneca vaccine this year through the WHO-led Covax facility.
INQUIRER file photo / MARIANNE BERMUDEZ
MANILA, Philippines — The OCTA Research group will be proposing a vaccine model seeking to allocate the country’s limited supply of COVID-19 jabs in the National Capital Region (NCR) and areas where the majority of cases are.
“We are going to submit this week our own vaccine model. In a nutshell, what we’re basically saying is this: Let’s focus the limited supply in NCR,” Professor Ranjit Rye of the OCTA Research group said in an interview over ABS-CBN News Channel on Wednesday.
“The other regions may complain but the argument here is if the pandemic is a snake in the country, the head is in the NCR and Calabarzon, Rizal and Bulacan. So if you cut the head off, we believe that will have an impact on the overall war against COVID,” he added.
While the group agrees with the government’s risk-based approach on who to prioritize in the vaccination line, he said that there should be a focus in areas with high cases of COVID-19.
“Let’s start focusing on spaces. That means, the NCR, Calabarzon, where the majority of the cases are,” he said.
Rye admitted that this model could not achieve herd immunity—or the vaccination of 70 percent of the Philippine population—as fast as the government’s target, but it would result in the decline in infections and lead to the reopening of the economy.
“If we do this, we might not achieve herd immunity but we will achieve a situation of decline in cases and a very good basis for opening up the economy,” he said.
According to Rye, the OCTA research group is developing two vaccine models but with the same objective of “optimizing” the deployment of vaccines in the “NCR Plus” area.
The model Rye had laid out is being developed by his group, which includes Dr. Guido David, while the other one is being developed by fellow Fr. Nic Austriaco’s group.
“It has different assumptions, that’s the reality there, but it’s still the same approach. How do we optimize the deployment of vaccines in the NCR Plus so that we have a maximum impact as far as the [reproduction number] concerned. If we can get it down, then we can open up,” Rye explained.
“The idea here is we won’t be able to get herd immunity anytime soon, but can we at least open up the economy. Can we at least move to the new normal in a quicker fashion? We believe testing, tracing will get us there. We believe that vaccinations, expanded and accelerated vaccinations, will get us there,” he added.
So far, the government has inoculated over 1 million people against COVID-19 since its vaccine rollout began on Mar. 1. The inoculation drive aims to vaccinate 70 million Filipinos within the year.
The country is expecting the April delivery of 1.5 million doses of the vaccine developed by China’s Sinovac and another 500,000 Sputnik V vaccine doses from Russia’s Gamaleya Institute.
Aside from this, the delivery of 979,200 doses from AstraZeneca’s vaccine through the World Health Organization-led COVAX facility is seen later this month.
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