New NCR COVID-19 cases per day 56% lower than during surge peak — OCTA

Alfresco diners enjoy their meals minding safety and health protocols at the designated outside dining area of restaurants in SM City North Edsa in Quezon City. The national government has allowed limited indoor dine-in in restaurants and the reopening of barbershops, beauty salons, and nail salons in NCR Plus under MECQ starting May 1.- INQUIRER/GRIG C. MONTEGRANDE

MANILA, Philippines — The average number of new COVID-19 cases per day in Metro Manila is now only 2,454 or 56 percent lower than the figures reported during the peak of the surge, the OCTA Research group said Friday.

The figure covers cases from April 30 to May 6, the interdisciplinary research group, which monitors the trends of COVID-19 cases in the country, said in its monitoring report.

OCTA Research said it had observed a “continued downward trajectory” for new COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila, which continues to be the center of the outbreak in the country.

It added that the current number of additional cases per day in the region is the same level as that from March 12 to 18.

“The one-week growth rate in the NCR (National Capital Region) was -25% from the previous week, compared to 23% and -17% in the weeks prior,” the research group reported.

According to OCTA, the reproduction number in the NCR has decreased to 0.70 while the reproduction number in the country was 0.86. Reproduction number is the number of new cases estimated to branch out from one COVID-19 positive patient.

Meanwhile, the positivity rate or the percentage of individuals who were found positive for the virus among those tested, in the NCR over the past week was at 16 percent from an average of 22,941 tests a day.

Hospital bed occupancy in the region for COVID-19 patients meanwhile decreased to 52 percent.

“The main concern is the continued increase in COVID-19 ICU (intensive care unit) beds occupied, currently more than 850,” said OCTA.

ICU bed occupancy rate for COVID-19 in Metro Manila, however, remained stable at 71 percent, according to the researchers, as the Department of Health helps scale up the ICU bed capacity in the region.

In late April, OCTA Research fellow Ranjit Rye said that to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed with patients, the number of daily COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila should not exceed 2,000 before quarantine restrictions can be relaxed. Metro Manila and four neighboring provinces are under modified enhanced community quarantine until May 14.

Data from the DOH’s COVID-19 tracker also showed that Metro Manila has a total of 22,543 active cases as of Thursday.

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