OCTA: Metro Manila COVID-19 daily case average to drop below 3,000 in coming weeks

(FILE) This photo taken on April 6, 2021 shows a relative wearing personal protective equipment attending to a family member with COVID-19 at a makeshift ward in a hospital in Manila. (Photo by JAM STA ROSA / AFP)

MANILA, Philippines — The daily average number of COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila is expected to drop to less than 3,000 in the following weeks if the reproduction number holds at 0.85, the OCTA Research team said Sunday.

In its latest monitoring report, OCTA said the COVID-19 reproduction number is at 0.83 from April 25 to May 1.

The group also noted a decrease of 18% in the daily average of new COVID-19 cases with only 3,144 new infections over the past seven days.

“If the reproduction number in the National Capital Region holds at 0.85, the number of new cases per day in the NCR should decrease to 3,000 for May 2 to 8 and 2,800 for May 9 to 15,” OCTA said.

“If the reproduction number begins to increase again, there will be concern about the current quarantine restrictions in the NCR Plus,” it added.

Average daily attack rate in Metro Manila cities

Navotas City recorded the lowest average daily attack rate (ADAR) of 12.36 per 100,000 from April 25 to May 1, Octa said in its report.

It is followed by Manila with 15.62 ADAR and Caloocan with 16.08 ADAR.

Muntinlupa recorded a 16.27 ADAR, while Malabon had 16.33. Pasay followed with a 20.13 ADAR with Quezon City coming behind with 21.00 ADAR.

OCTA said an ADAR above 10 per 100,000 is still considered high. If the ADAR in many cities will decrease below 10 within two weeks, they would be moved to the moderate risk classification.

The research also noted that a higher decrease of peak cases does not mean that the local government unit performed the best in addressing the surge of infections in their areas since the peak in other cities may not have been as high.

As of May 2, the Philippines has a total of 1,054,983 confirmed COVID-19 cases, including 71,472 active cases, 966,080 recoveries, and 17,431 deaths.

/MUF