In this photo taken on March 22, policemen guard the boundary of Cavite and Metro Manila as the national capital and its nearby provinces are placed under lockdown due to a surge in COVID-19 cases. INQUIRER file photo / MARIANNE BERMUDEZ
MANILA, Philippines — The number of daily COVID-19 cases in Metro Manila should not be exceeding 2,000 before quarantine restrictions are relaxed to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed, the OCTA Research group said Wednesday.
“I think honestly we have to get cases below 2,000 cases, 2,000 cases I think a day sa NCR, we can manage po, yun ay base sa pag-aaral namin sa OCTA po,” OCTA Research fellow Prof. Ranjit Rye said in a televised briefing after asked when quarantine protocols could be eased.
(I think honestly we have to get cases below 2,000 cases in a day in NCR, that’s what we can manage based on our studies in OCTA.)
“Anything over 2,000 cases, mao-overwhelm po ‘yung ating hospital system,” he added.
(Anything over 2,000 cases will still overwhelm our hospital system.)
The OCTA Research has recommended that Metro Manila and its adjacent provinces remain under modified enhanced community quarantine (MECQ) for another week after April 30 to stabilize the downward trend in new COVID-19 infections.
Rye said a longer MECQ could be the “exit strategy” for these areas to move to the more lenient general community quarantine (GCQ).
“Once we have one or two weeks of this (MECQ), makikita natin we will have a foundation to open up to GCQ na mas solid, na talagang solid enough for us to sustain for the next three, four months po,” he explained.
Rye also warned against shifting to GCQ at this stage as this could reverse the gain in terms of new COVID-19 cases and COVID-19 reproduction rate or the speed of the coronavirus transmission.
OCTA member Dr. Guido David said in the same briefing that the country’s COVID-19 reproduction rate is now at 0.85 while Metro Manila’s average number of new cases is at 3,500.
“What we’re seeing now are significant improvements, we can say successful yung ating community quarantine for the past several weeks,” he said.
The government is expected to announce this Wednesday new quarantine classifications of the so-called NCR Plus starting May 1.