Herd immunity? Lacson says to wait ’til 2033 if gov’t won’t hasten vaccination pace

Senator Panfilo Lacson. PRIB FILE

MANILA, Philippines — At the rate the government’s COVID-19 vaccination rollout is going, the Philippines would only be able to reach its 70-million vaccination target by 2033 to be able to attain herd immunity, Senator Panfilo Lacson said Friday.

With 114,615 reported vaccinations since the government started its vaccination program, it could take 11 years and eight months to hit the targeted 70 million vaccine recipients in the country, according to Lacson.

“I did the math. As of March 10, nasa 114,615 ang na-vaccinate. Kung hindi mag-accelerate yung pace ng vaccination at assuming na darating lahat yung supply na ine-expect for 70 million targeted population to achieve herd immunity then we’ll have a problem because aabutin tayo ng 2033 at the rate we’re doing it now,” the senator said in an interview over CNN Philippines’ The Source.

(I did the math. As of March 10, we have vaccinated only 114,615. If we don’t accelerate the pace of our vaccination and assuming all of the supply expected for the 70 million targeted to achieve herd immunity will arrive then we’ll have a problem because we will hit that target by 2033 at the rate we’re doing it now.)

“Pero kung maga-accelerate—and I hope the government will accelerate the vaccination rollout—then maybe we can advance yung timetable natin, yung timeline,” he added.

(But if we accelerate—and I hope the government will accelerate the vaccination rollout—then maybe we can advance our timetable, our timeline.)

In a separate message to reporters, Lacson explained his computation.

“One-hundred fourteen thousand, six hundred fifteen vaccinated in 1 week, 70 [million], divided by 114,615 equals 610.7, divided by 52 weeks a year, equals 11.7 years or 11 years [and] 8 months. (By) 2033 okay na tayo [we’ll probably be okay by 2033],” he said.

“Then we also have to consider the supply side, not just the logistics part of making the vaccines reach the arms of targeted individuals. Let’s hope na walang gaps ang [that there are no more gaps in the] deliveries para walang hinto {so the program will be continuous],” he added.

The Philippine government has so far deployed 796,950 vaccine doses: 440,450 Coronvac developed by China’s Sinovac Biotech and 356,500 AstraZeneca jab.

Malacañang earlier said the country so far has 442 vaccination sites, and that 348 of these carried out the inoculations on March 10 in 17 regions covering 176 local government units.

EDV