MANILA, Philippines — The number of new cases of coronavirus disease in Metro Manila is expected to rise “in the short term” with its reproduction number’s increase, the Octa Research Team said Friday.
Graph showing the rise in NCR’s Reproduction Number Rt from OCTA Research
In its report, the experts said the reproduction number in Metro Manila grew from 1.20 last week to 1.32 on Feb. 24 despite the localized lockdown imposed in different cities in the metropolis. The reproduction number tells the average count of people that a Covid-19 patient can infect.
“After 719 new case reports on February 22, the daily new cases in NCR have decreased to 474 on February 24. However, indications are that the trend is still increasing, as the reproduction number in NCR [National Capital Region] increased to Rt = 1.32,” read the Feb. 25 report of the Octa Team.
But while localized lockdowns may have helped slow down the increasing trend in NCR, “new cases… are expected to increase at least in the short term,” it added.
New cases in Pasay up 160%
Among the local government units that recently imposed localized lockdown was Pasay City, which posted a 160-percent increase in COVID-19 cases that prompted it to place several barangays on strict quarantine amid the unabated rise in virus cases.
In its monitoring report, Pasay’s daily new cases jumped to 81 from February 16 to Febuary 22, from just 31 for the period February 9 to Feb. 15.
The Octa group also noted that Pasay’s daily attack rate was high at 12.67 per 100,000 population.
The Department of Health previously dismissed claims that the sudden surge in infections at Pasay was caused by the patient living in the city who got the more contagious variant of Covid-19.
At least 95 households in 56 barangays in Pasay were placed on lockdown after the city spotted three or more active Covid-19 cases in each village.
Mandaluyong ‘best-performing LGU’
While several LGUs in NCR reported increase in new cases, the best performing LGU in NCR was Mandaluyong, Octa Research said.
It noted that the city not only avoided an increase in new cases, but also reported a low daily attack rate of 2.55 per 100,000, low hospital occupancy of 5% and low positivity rate of 2%.
Other LGUs in NCR which performed well in several key indicators were Muntinlupa, Valenzuela and Pasig.