La Niña seen likely to prevail in next several months

MANILA, Philippines — The likelihood that the La Niña phenomenon will prevail in the next several months has increased, according to climate experts in the United States.

In their latest monthly advisory, the US Climate Prediction Center and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society said La Niña was 85 percent likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter 2020 to 2021 and 60 percent to continue into spring 2021 or February to April.

Last month’s advisory placed the probability of La Niña prevailing throughout winter or the next few months at 75 percent.

“The latest forecasts from several models suggest the likelihood of a moderate or even strong La Niña during the peak November to January season,” it added.

According to the United Nations-administered Agricultural Market Information System (Amis), this bodes well for the production of rice.

“(T)he latest figures confirm expectations of larger plantings translating into an annual production recovery this season to a fresh historical peak,” the Amis said in its latest Market Monitor report.

The occurrence of La Niña typically increases rainfall over Southeast Asia, including the Philippines, during October to February and even up to May, the UN agency said.

In the Philippines, wet-season rice is under favorable conditions with crops sown from July to August in the tillering stage,” it said.

Recent rains, however, failed to bring the water level at Angat Dam in Bulacan to its minimum threshold of 180 meters.