‘Duterte legacy hinges on COVID recovery’

Amid the record-high performance and trust ratings of President Duterte in the latest Pulse Asia survey, a political analyst said the President’s popularity may soon hinge on the country’s economic recovery postpandemic and the eventual rollout of the coveted COVID-19 vaccine, hopefully by next year.

Yet even with these factors, Mr. Duterte can expect to continue enjoying his good numbers, even if they may not necessarily translate to votes for him and his allies in 2022, said Bob Herrera-Lim, managing director of international political risk consultancy firm Teneo.

“The next crucial benchmark for the President will be the middle of next year, because by that time, many of the countries of the world, especially the developed world, will have vaccines,” Lim said in an online forum organized by the Foreign Correspondents Association of the Philippines on Thursday.

“If we do not have the vaccine and our economy is still struggling below our regional peers, then that’s where the comparisons will start to leak in, like, why are we not where these other countries, our peers, are?” he added.

New survey

The Pulse Asia survey released earlier this week, which is the first nationwide survey amid the COVID-19 pandemic, showed the performance rating of Mr. Duterte rising to 91 percent. The numbers thwarted expectations that the President’s numbers will plummet due to the government’s handling of the pandemic, where cases have soared to over 330,000 even amid the world’s longest lockdown.

The survey, taken from Sept. 14 to Sept. 20, found that 92 percent of the 1,200 adult respondents approve of the President’s response to prevent the spread of the coronavirus while 84 percent approve of the actions taken by his administration to control the spread of the virus.

Respondents from Mindanao gave the President the highest approval rating at 98 percent. It was followed by Visayas at 92 percent, Luzon outside Metro Manila at 91 percent and Metro Manila at 87 percent.

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes, however, noted that despite the record-smashing number, it was not a significant change from Mr. Duterte’s ratings from the past year.

Despite criticism from local and international human rights groups and opposition members on his dismal rights record, Mr. Duterte continues to enjoy his popularity, at least based on the polls conducted by private survey firms.

But it is also important to take into consideration the element of fear in the favorable survey results for Mr. Duterte, said political analyst Richard Heydarian.

“The vast majority of these people who joined these surveys are from the working class communities. These are the same communities where we have seen a lot of extrajudicial killings,” he said.

“The climate of fear cannot be taken out as a potential factor in explaining also extraordinarily high numbers for President Duterte,” Heydarian added.

Beyond his high ratings at the present, what needs to be looked into more is the “Dutertista” phenomenon, Heydarian said, where the influence of Mr. Duterte and his style of leadership and governance may persist in the years even after his presidency. —With a report from Inquirer Research