MANILA, Philippines — State meteorologists are expecting two to three tropical cyclones that may enter the country’s area of responsibility for the month of October, based on analysis of past years’ weather patterns.
In a report on Monday afternoon, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) explained that most of the storms that entered the Philippine area of responsibility during the month of October tended to make landfall on the eastern side of Luzon.
If ever storms enter in October, they will be named Nika, Ofel, and Pepito.
“Dalawa o tatlong bagyo ang posibleng pumasok sa ating area of responsibility ngayon pong October 2020,” weather specialist Ariel Rojas said.
(Two or three storms are expected to enter our area of responsibility this October 2020.)
“Makikita natin sa ating mga figures sa slide na ito na mas tumatama sa kalupaan or naglalandfall ang mga bagyo na pumapasok sa ating area of responsibility sa buwan ng Oktubre kesa sila ay lumiliko pabalik sa Dagat Pasipiko,” he added.
(We can see over our figures on this slide that storms entering our area of responsibility tend to make landfall from the month of October, rather than moving towards the Pacific Ocean.)
Pagasa said that the release of these information is geared at helping towns in the eastern side of the country, especially those inside Bicol Region, provinces of Quezon, Aurora, Cagayan, Isabela, and Batanes, to prepare ahead of the storms.
Meanwhile, Pagasa noted that it would issue a La Niña advisory this coming October, as they are still on La Niña alert due to indications pointing to the said phenomenon.
If the La Niña condition persists, it may lead to a higher chance of thunderstorm activity due to warmer than usual air temperatures, which are brought by enhanced easterlies.
“Naglabas po ang Pagasa ng pahayag ngayong Setyembre ukol sa 70 percent chance na pagkakaroon ng La Niña ngayong last quarter ng 2020 dahil po ito ay ipinapakita ng karamihan ng climate models,” Rojas noted.
(Pagasa released a statement this September about the 70 percent chance of a La Niña for the last quarter of 2020, according to the various climate models.)
“Kabilang sa mga inaasahang epekto ng La Niña ay ang mas mataas na tsansa ng pagkakaroon ng malalakas na thunderstorms, may kasama po ‘yang mga hail o maliliit na tipak ng yelo. At dahil kapag may La Niña po mas malapit sa kalupaan ng Pilipinas nabubuo ang mga bagyo, ibig sabihin mas maraming mga bagyo ang posibleng nasa loob ng ating area of responsibility,” he added.
(Among the expected effects of the La Niña is the higher chance of stronger thunderstorms, including hailstorms or small chunks of ice during rains. And with La Niña, storms usually build up closer to the country’s land mass, which means there may be more storms inside our area of responsibility.)